Research On The Forecast Method Based On Sustainable Water Use

Water resource is a basic natural resource, as well as a strategic economic resource. In water shortage areas, the sustainable water use is of great importance. Reasonable water allocation is the prerequisite for realizing sustainable use of water, while water demand forecast is an important preparatory task of water allocation.In traditional planning methods, water demand is processed as an exogenous variable, which means only those direct factors affecting water demand are considered but the inter-restriction among social, economic and ecological systems is overlooked. Many factors should be considered in order to rationally and accurately forecast water demand, which is subject to macroeconomic, ecological and environmental conditions. Based on the study of the regional volume of water that can be utilized in a sustainable way, this article deals with how to plan the development level, scale and speed of a particular area in accordance with available water volume. In addition, measures such as structural adjustment, layout improvement and more efficient water use are advised to ensure sustainable use of water.Restraint modules of water demand forecast model are established through analyzing water characteristics in Yan'an City and calculating the sustainable indices like water resources volume, available water volume, water footprint, water scarcity, ect. Domestic, industrial and ecological water demand of each water consumers in Yan'an City will be estimated based on the corresponding socioeconomic and natural/geographic conditions.