Study On Activity-based Travel Time And Mode Choice Models

The urban and the transportation systems,which are interacting parts and shouldn't be separated, constitute an organic matter. With the flourishing development of the national economy and the rapid increase in the amount of the population and vehicles, the contradiction between the transportation supply and demand becomes increasingly outstanding. The transportation system is coming into saturation and even super saturation, and the capital and land resources are very limited. On this condition, it is especially important for the development of the urban and transportation system to attach importance to planning and managing travel demand to restrain the increase in the travel demand. Analyzing people's travel behavior based on travel demand forecasting, finding the key of the transportation problem, enacting corresponding Transportation Demand Management policy, and evaluating the effect of the TDM policy with the advanced activity-based travel demand forecasting model is one of the effective ways to solve the congested travel problem. By comparing and analyzing the residents'travel time, mode, destination and route before and after the implement of the TDM policy, the activity-based travel demand forecasting method can evaluate the anticipative effect of the TDM policy and provide basis for the decision of the government. Based on the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education (RFDP), the activity-based disaggregated travel choice model, this paper makes general and deep research and exploration on the overall framework, the development method, parameter estimation, evaluation and application of the model system, and the simulation and evaluation of the TDM policy as well. The main contents of this paper can be summarized as follows: 1. This paper describes the basic theory of the activity-based travel demand forecasting method, compares and analyzes the merits and the defects of the two types of travel demand research method-the econometric models and the hybrid simulation models. Moreover, we explain the basic viewpoint of the activity theory, such as the concepts of activity, trip, tour, intermediate and so on. 2. Based on maximum utility theory, this paper introduces the basic theory, model frame and estimation method of several disaggregated models, such as MNL, NL and Logistic model, and the calculation method of an important parameter –Logsum as well. 3. We describe the overall framework of the activity-based travel demand model system and the basic content of the residents'daily travel survey of Changchun city in 2003. 4. According to the Logistic model, we develop a travel time and a mode choice models that are two sections of the activity-based travel demand model system, and accomplish the estimation and the explaining of the parameters, and approve the feasibility of the models by sensitivity analysis. 5. The paper introduces the concept and the main Transportation Demand Management policies, and emphasizes the basic concepts and internal and overseas implement instances of the congestion pricing and the public traffic policies. 6. According to the traffic condition and the standard of living in Changchun city, by using the time and mode choice models which have been developed, we analyze and evaluate the effect of the congestion pricing and the public traffic policies to provide basis for the implement of similar Transportation demand management policies. The meanings and the innovations of this paper are: 1. It studies deeply on the system of the activity-based travel demand forecasting models, comprehensively compares and analyzes the development method, basic framework, estimation method and main merits and defects of all kinds of models in the system.