Flood Forecasting And Regulating Model Of Qinhuai River Catchment

After reviewing the status of the study about the hydrology models at home and abroad, the statistical correlative flood forecasting model of Qinhuai river catchment, the runoff and flow concentration modeling method in the upper land and the polders of the lower land, the forecasting model about the process of the tide level in the Changjiang river, the simulating model of the water flow movement in the river network are studied, the statistical correlative flood forecasting model of Qinhuai river catchment and the flood forecasting and regulating model of Qinhuai river catchment are set up.Based on the theory and method of mixed regressive model, the statistical correlative forecasting model of the DongShan's water level is got, it is the key level of controlling flood.According to the characteristic of the landform and physiognomy and the characteristic of the runoff and flow concentration, the Qinhuai river Catchment is consist of two parts, the upper land and the polders of the lower land, the models of the runoff and flow concentration for those are set up. By the characteristic of the runoff, the kinds of the land use in the upper land are classified into the water surface, the rice field, the dry crop field and uncultivated land, and the sealed area(city area, road, et al), the methods of corresponding runoff are also got for those four kinds, the unit hydrograph without units are used in the flow concentration of the upper land, it also considers the regulating effect of the reservoir and lake. The runoff and flow concentrating model for the polders of the lower land is got according to the unique characteristic of the polders of the lower.The influence factors of tide level process of the XiaGuan station of the Changjiang River and the data of reporting flood of the XiaGuan station in real time are analyzed, the tide level process forecasting model of the XiaGuan station is got by the simple-applied statistical correlative method. The model is calibrated and validated by using the observing data, the result indicates that the model is correct in a certain level and can satisfy the demand of the river network hydraulic model for Qinhuai river catchment as the boundary condition.The river network water flow simulating model is set up and it is calculated by the simple-applied forecasting and revising method according to the special network water in the Qinhuai river catchment. The river network water flow simulating model are validated by usingthe observing data, the result indicates that the model is correct in a certain level and can satisfy the functional demand of the comparing the flood regulating scheme.The statistical correlative forecasting model is simple and applied, the requisite information of the rain and water situation is less, but it can not compare the flood regulating scheme. The forecasting and regulation simulating model based on the theory of runoff and flow concentration and the river network hydraulics can compare the flood regulating scheme, those two kinds of models have their own characteristic, they are complementary for each other.