Earthquake Disaster Prediction For City Water Delivery Network

A new method is developed for evaluating the serviceability of water delivery network under the effect of earthquake. This method serves as security estimating, designing and management tool for water delivery system.Firstly, the paper presents the method for normal state. We can get the flow rate of pipelines and the hydraulic pressure of nodes by solving the equation sets of nodes, and corresponding application program is developed.The paper considers various essential factors when analyzing aseismic reliability of single pipeline, especially discusses the reliability of the pipeline at the area of liquefaction and fault. The computing method of reliability is developed base on damage of pipeline due to earthquake wave and second order damage due to liquefaction.In succession, the paper discusses the method for negative pressure for damaged pipeline according to the method for normal state. We can determine ineffective water supplying area and the rate of water supply of node by analysing the reliability of system with Monte Carlo Method, find the weak link, and provide technique and countermeasure for damage prediction and aseismic reinforcement.Finally, the estimate method of losing is developed for waterdelivery system under earthquake.Several methods and countermeasures for aseismic reinforcement are provided for city water delivery systems base on the above analyses.