Study On Demand Forecast And Strategy Of Urban Park-and-Ride Facility

With the rapid growth of national economy and acceleration of urbanization process, the pressure on urban traffic resources gradually increases, transportation has increased the consumption and dependence of energy. China's urban transportation is facing the dual pressure:urbanization and motorization, and the dual constraints: Shortage of land resources and ecological environment. Traffic conflicts between supply and demand are growing, which causes traffic jams more and more prominent.P & R facilities can make the car transfer mass public transportation outside the city, which can optimize means of transportation of urban centers, alleviate the traffic pressure on the main city area. By limiting car traffic around the city, providing parking facilities and the bus service directly to the central area, it will improve travel efficiency and improve the urban transport system. It is conducive to the sustainable development of urban transport. China's P & R-related theoretical research is less. P & R demand forecast is the most important part of P & R planning. Its purpose is to analyze the influences of related factors on the demand of P & R, reasonablely forecast the size of Park and Ride spaces and attract the largest potential demand.In this paper traveler by car of Shanghai is treated as objects. Via referring to related references and a lot of data survey, P & R mode choice probability model based on logit model is constructed. Based on them, it has further studyed the P & R policies and strategies.Thesis is divided into six chapters, major elements of each chapter is the following:Chapter 1, the main content are including the background and significance of research, research status at home and abroad and major research and technical routes.Chapter 2,the paper firstly introduces its basic concepts, purpose, function and classification of P& R. Then it introduces in detail major two categories of foreign demand prediction model for park and ride facilities:macro forecasting method based on regional models and prediction methods based on site attributes.Chapter 3, the paper firstly introduces behavioural process of Park and Ride. Combinning foreign influence factors and the actual situation, it has done a systematic analysis of the factors. Then Behavioral characteristics of Park and Ride is analyzed. Via survey method of SP and RP, survey plan is designed. The survey result is analyzed in detail, including traveler characteristics and travel behavior characteristics. Trip characteristics have analyzed its component ratio of P&R and car travel, including sex, age, occupation, trip purpose, etc.Via the analysis of behavior characteristics, the main factors in Mode Choice are determined. Changes of importances of each factor are compared when P & R and car traveler selec means of transportation.They are prerequisites of P & R demand forecast and implementation Strategy.Chapter 4. The paper has developed P & R facilities demand forecasting model. Firsyly it has developed the method of determining service scope of P & R facilities. Based on BL model, the Utility function between P & R trip and car trip is analyzed. Based on it, P & R travel choice probability model is constructed and the method of determinning aggregate demand of P & R is developed. According to the data of SP survey in Shanghai, the parameters are demarcated. The model is applied to a P & R facility, the aggregate demand is calculated, which has verified the validity of the prediction method.Chapter 5 has develped implementation of strategies and safeguards from the policy and technical aspects for introducing P & R in China's major cities. The policys include bus priority strategy, car parking management strategy and policy constraints.The purperse of technical aspect is to improve the efficiency of the service facilities. It has investigated P & R internal functional organizations and related ancillary facilities design. They have provided scientific and effective safeguards for successfully implementing P & R in future.Chapter 6, Summary and Outlook. The paper has summarized the contents of this writing, the innovation and issues for future study.