Research On Modeling And Simulation Of Safety Economic Decision Based On System Dynamics

That people's safety level is largely determined by the level of economy proved the point economic problem is the root of safety problem. The research of how to utilize limited safety resources to apply into corporate safety production in the most optimized way to realize the safety of production, life and surviving as well as the best economic benefits of the company remain the ever significant part of safety economics and its basic expression is the reasonable and scientific safety economic decisions being made. Thanks to the implicitly of accident risks, the effect of safety investment is implicit and hidden. It does not show obviously and instantly as other investment like production investment. The implicitly, indirectness, continuality, time-delaying, comprehensiveness and complexity are the characteristics of safety investment. Therefore, the overall safety statement, comprehensive investment and its corresponding economic and social impact of the safety economic system make a complicated, ever-changing and non-linear feed back mechanism, which can't be valued and predicted by traditional input-output analysis nor can it be the scientific proof for evaluate safety economic decision.This dissertation brought system dynamic into the modeling and simulation of corporate safety economic decision. Through analysis of safety investment's influence towards accident risk and economic benefits output in safety economy system, an system dynamic model is built in the basis of SD modeling technique and risk control "3E" policy, which consist of safety technology sub system, safety investment sub system and safety education sub system. At last, a simulation is formed by a SD modeling software called Venism. The simulation proposed the analysis of different safety resource appointment effects in different safety plans,The result show that the specific model can reflect the influence of different decision plan on corporate accident frequency, average accident direct loss, accident volume, overall accident loss and safety benefits. In order to adjust the company to the ever-changing production and operation decisions, a dynamic safety economic decision plan is in great need and has essential referential value.