Application Research Of Uncertainty Theory In Water Prediction And Evaluation

Prediction of water quality simulation and evaluation is the indispensable foundation work of successful completion of environmental planning and management of water, water pollution prevention and control work, water quality prediction and evaluation has long been seen as an important research content, it has an extremely significance for the development of society. At present, we have some certain theoretical basis and application of results of water quality prediction and evaluation of models, but these models are still limited to the ideal river, deterministic model with a large number of monitoring information and data,and the incertitude factors in the system of water environment are not insufficient considered.In this paper, on the basice of the reviews about the theory and method of certainty and uncertainty , the theory and method of uncertainty in the Water Environment System Research are introduced, and, it is pointed out that the uncertainty of the theory and methods can guide the Water Environment System Modeling so that incertitude factors in the system of water environment can be more objective and clearer understanded inherently. In this paper, the Huaihe River Basin, for example, using seasonal autoregressive model to study the changes in water quality trends and the probability of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to assess water quality has been proposed ,with a view to establish water quality uncertainty model on the water environment systems in order to study in line with objective facts, and more scientific, practical.In the uncertainty method, this paper takes the Huaihe River Basin for example, the seasonal autoregressive model for prediction of water quality modeling is adopted, the random number in the model with VB programming language; fuzzy mathematics combined with probability theory , Fuzzy probability Comprehensive Ratings-Based Approach is used to assess water quality. Modeling results shows that: The above non-deterministic method of water quality prediction and evaluation plays a very important role in practical work, and provides new ideas and methods for the future uncertainty theory and method in the study of water environment system.As the water environment system objectively exists of a large number of uncertainties, if you want more accurate and true reflection of water environment system in the various phenomena, uncertainty theory and method must be more widely used in the water environment.