The Application Of Time Series In The Oil-field Effective Audit

Based on the introduction of activity-based costing, Production process should be described as: Production lead operation occurred, the product consumption of operation, the operating consumption of resources, resulting in cost occurs。This is the traditional method of manufacturing costs of products in the idea of the cost of consumption is different.In this way, the operating cost to operating costs on the accounting to track the cost of the product formation and the accumulation process, the cost of the formation of the "cause and effect" to trace to its source: from the "antecedent" sense, as a result of the cost caused by the operation of the cost of analysis should be an analysis of the value chain, and the value chain through all aspects of business, so first of all, the cost analysis of the demand from the market segments and product design to start; from the "consequences" terms, it is necessary to understand the actual cost to complete the operation the number of resources, which is how to realize the value of the transfer, and ultimately to their customers (ie market) value of the transfer of the number, the number of received values, to be the end of the cost analysis。Proceeding from this, the operating cost calculation the cost of the study so that more in-depth, more detailed cost information, and more controllable。Activity-based costing method is not only a cost, but also a cost control and enterprise management tools. In its business conducted on the basis of cost control and management, known as the Job Management Act (Activity-based Management, hereinafter referred to as ABM), that is, to work-based management information systems. It is operating as the center, the division of operations from product design to material supply; from all aspects of process, assembly, quality inspection to ship the entire process of sales, operating through the cost of operation and confirmed that measurement, the relative accuracy of the final calculated the product cost. At the same time, all associated with the role of product tracking, to eliminate non-value-added operations, and optimize the operating chain and value chain and increase the value of demand, to provide useful information, and promote maximum conservation, improve decision-making, planning, control, in order to ultimately to enhance enterprise competitiveness and profitability, the purpose of increasing corporate value.Operating costs arising from the basis of law, as well as the promotion of its precise cost allocation, and can provide cost information in decision-making relevance, to provide meaningful non-financial information, to expand the scope of services, such as the cost of features that adapt to the modern enterprise and the cost control system should be established on the basis of activity-based management; it will form a product of the operation as the responsibility and control center, took place from a cost analysis of the root causes of the launch, the distinction between value-added operations and non-value-added operations, the establishment of the optimal dynamic value-added criteria, from both financial and operating performance of the operation to evaluate the changing practices in order to achieve the goal of continuing to reduce costs.The focus of activity-based costing is to identify cost drivers and cost driver, also known as cost drivers, activity-based costing method is the core content.Therefore, we need to first work to understand the costing: cost driver refers to the cost of the occurrence of those important activities or events. It can be a matter of an activity or operation. In broad terms, the cost driver to determine the implementation of Activity Based Costing is part of; narrow point of view, it can be considered as the cost of corporate control of part of the effort to create. In general, the cost driver dominated the cost of operations, determine the cost of production, and distribution costs as a standard. Operations and cost driver is the difference between the operating organization to achieve organizational goals andobjectives of various departments within the various acts required; and cost driver is a factor in the cost of take-off and landing. In accordance with the activity-based costing, enterprise applications to a very good operating cost management to improve efficiency, usually takes eight steps to implement, precisely because the management of operating costs experienced over the need for the effective implementation of the complex process of creating and maintaining such a large-scale activity-based costing model required to spend time and great cost, this approach runs counter to the "cost - benefit" principle, in most companies can not be widely implemented. At the same time, operating costs due to system update after the completion of very little (which is repeated to the staff needs to investigate and understand the data, thus the high cost), under the system of processes, products and customers very quickly estimate the cost of doing becomes inaccurate. Moreover, the costs occurred as a result of the unit cost factor is based on the subjective report of personal inference to draw, people will tend to waste time on the controversy over its accuracy, rather than focus on operating cost analysis to solve the problems revealed. In addition, as a result of processes of decomposition and merging, the operating cost model does not accurately reflect and grasp the complexity of the actual operation.The drawbacks of traditional ABC, in January 2005, Harvard Business School professor Robert Kaplan and Acorn Systems ? co-founder and chairman Steven Anderson ? "Time-driven activity-based costing" a text of a new operation Cost Management: Time-driven activity-based costing (Time-driven Activity-based Costing), will the traditional activity-based costing of resources and operating cost driver cost driver for the unification of motivation to spend some time as a unified measure of tool costs sharing, which makes the operating cost method in practice significantly reduce the degree of difficulty.Operating costs under the new law, in practice significantly reduce the degree of difficulty: First of all, the company's management staff do not have to investigate their activities in the operation time for the proportion of people, but direct estimates of the company to invest in the actual production capacity accounted for the ideal the percentage of production capacity; and then, in the calculation of a company operating in the resources invested in the unit time cost, managers can determine the completion of the following activities for each unit operation time (to the employees that they can understand or direct observation to arrive at the data); then, we can easily cost per unit time in accordance with operational requirements and each time the unit cost calculation of unit cost factors occurred. The use of time-driven activity-based costing, managers continued to report to the company the cost of the operational activities, while also understanding of the activities of the amount of time spent.Auditors of a production plant for the audit of budget implementation, the information provided in company, the most basic and most important is the information on the production wells. The information on the audit, can confirm that a recovery of crude oil production factory, and then calculate the plant's actual crude oil revenue, the actual operating costs. If the auditors do not check the accuracy confirmed, this will result in significant errors in the work. Now try to use time-series approach to predict the output of the plant so that we can work to avoid major mistakes.First of all, the auditor randomly selected a plant oil wells in the means of production, time is from January 2000 to December 2008. Wells for each data is 108, in line with the requirements of time-series modeling.Second, to determine and select the time series model (AR, MA, ARMA), of this year or in the future in a time period to predict the output of crude oil.Third, the application of time-driven activity-based costing for production data related to oil wells to assess the risk to find the cost of points, the risk to reduce costs and improve the economic efficiency of enterprises, but also practical significance.