| China is a country which mine accident has been happening frequently, and has been unable to get out of the"rectification-mine accident-rectification"vicious circle. Strengthening the largest rainfall amount forecast in mining area is great realistic signification to reduce mine disasters, develop reasonable water drainage programs and appropriate preventive measures to ensure production safety in mining area.Chaos and fractal theory is main content which nonlinear science researches on and hotspot we research. The integration of nonlinear theory and hydrological science offers a new theory and method for studying the intrinsic evolution law of hydrological system. Combining with studying dissertation, hydrological forecast technology in mining is discussed in another way.The largest rainfall time series in Tonglushan Mine is study object and guarantee safe production in mine area is made as the target in the dissertation. The hydrological system is analyzed and studied by applying nonlinear theory(chaos and fractal). Based on the establishment of the corresponding prediction model, the largest rainfall amount is forecasted and analyzed and a new way of thinking for precipitation disaster prevention in mining area is provided. The main research work is listed as follows:Firstly, the status which the nonlinear theory(chaos and fractal theory) is applied in hydrology field in china and aboard is reviewed. Based on the analysis of chaos time series and forecasting methods, the rainfall amount time series stochastic model is established and using the time series analysis method, the AR model format is confirmed. The No 34 year rainfall forecast range by the stationary time series forecast method is got, the results indicate it is accurate. Then, the one-rank local prediction method is used to forecast the rainfall amount of the No 34 year and No 44 year, the forecast error is within an acceptable range, which indicates the method is feasible. Finally, based on fractal dimension of the Rescaled Rangle Analysis, using the fractal theory and methods , the rainfall time series in Tonglushan Mine is studied by R/S Analysis. From another perspective, the tendency of rainfall forecast is achieved. The results show that: the length of 33 and 44 of rainfall time series both has long-term relevance, but the overall trend in the future is contrary to of the past, the process is anti-sustainability.In short, the whole study uses chaos and fractal theory to analysis rainfall time series. Not only can this research accomplish point forecasts, but also realize trend forecast. The result provides a new approach and solution for the development short and long-term prevention disaster plans and will change the afterwards management into the beforehand management in mining area. |
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