Prediction Of Energy Consumption And Emission Under Environmental Taxes In China

China, the world's largest coal country, SO₂, NO_X, emissions rank first in the world, CO₂ emissions also ranked second in the world after the United States, and will surpass United States in the near future. Due to the advantage of computable general equilibrium(CGE) modeling method in policy simulation and analysis, CGE model has become a main method to analyze the energy and environment problem. A model was build to assess the energy consumption and emission of China under environmental taxes.In this study, a model of economy-energy-environment is established to provide an efficient method to evaluate the energy consumption and emission of China, base on the bilevel optimization theory. The model includes seven countries (China, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) and 13 sub-regions. Especially, China is divided into six sub-regions and Indonesia is divided into two sub-regions in order to take into account the regional characteristics such as industry structure, energy resource distribution and energy consumption in this model.By using this model, the author forecast energy consumption and CO₂, CH₄, SO₂ and NO_X emissions under the specific environmental policy of SO₂ emission and the implementation of clean development mechanism (CDM) project. CDM project is also an effective method to reduce the green house gas emission. Furthermore, the implementing potential of the possible CDM projects in term of the amount of certified emission reductions (CERs) attributed to each of candidate technologies and the average production cost of CERs and integrated effectiveness caused by possible CDM activities with relation to CO2 emission reduction policy are analyzed and evaluated. The results show that CDM is an effective measure in energy conservation and reduction of environmental emissions. Meanwhile, CDM activities are found sensitive, not only for CO₂ but also for CH₄, SO₂ and NO-X emissions reduction.Finally, the author analyses the nergy consumption and economic growth of China by using the grey relational theory. The result shows that priority should be given to the development of low energy consumption, high value-added high-tech industries. At the same time, vigorously develop the tertiary industry and the first industries, reduce the energy consumption of the secondary industry.