| The last two decades have been marked by a new appreciation of the seriousimpacts of the marine phenomena we now call harmful algal blooms. Theseoccurrences of HABs represent a significant and seemingly expanding threat tohuman health, fishery resources, and marine ecosystems throughout the world. Tounderstand the critical features and mechanisms underlying the populaiton dynamicsof HAB species in a variety of oceanographic regimes are essential to predict andmitigate the red tides. In this paper, an interdisciplinary approach is used in the research of harmuflalgal dynamical model and predication. The detailed research work is as follows: 1. From 2001 to 2003, we monitored the physical, chemical, and biologicalfactors that affect the ocuurrence of HABs. Especially in May~Sep. 2003, a highfrequency monitor project was carried in Bohai bay. Last we appaised the HABscecosystem of Boahai bay. 2. Based on a Noctiluca scintillans-diatom-nutrient HABs model, using modernnonlinear theory, we analyzed the stability of the model's steady states. Then throughnumerical simulation we get the values of a at Hopf bifurcation points. Finally wediscussed the bifurcation behaviors and stability of the model equations byconsidering the predation of zooplankton. 3. Based on the data of harmful algal and environmental factors in Bohai bay,using principal component analysis and multivariate stepwise regression, the decisivefactors which affected the abundance of phytoplankton are got. Then a MSRforecasting equation is constructed, and the result is good. 4. Considering ANN, FL, expert system and HABs dynamical model, wesupposed a prototype of HABs prediction and early-warning system. |
