The Environmental Risk Study Of Heavy Metal Pollution Accident

In recent years, the occurrence times of the pollution accidents in china have increased gradually, and the accidents are happening with increasing, which inflicted considerable losses to our economy. Intensifing the study of environmental risk of the pollution accidents play an important role on cutting down the hazards and decreasing the frequency of accident. Therefore, based on the meaning of the pollution accidents and the environmental risk, in this article, in order to sum up the frequency of the accidents, frequency analysis model for pollution accidents is setted up, with which the frequency and the leakage under this frequency can be calculated, there are many uncertainties in the pollution accidents, which lead the complexity of study research of the environmental risk increasing. The randomicity and fuzzy are considered. In this article, the parameter of frequency analysis model for pollution accidents is disposed from its fuzzy, and the parameter is obtained randomly, through these practices, the incertitudes of the pollution accidents are incarnated. With heavy metal as the main load carrier in water, the impact which the movement of bedload puts on the process of migration and transformation of heavy metals is considered, and the silt model is acceded to the transfer mechanism of heavy metal, so phase-separation model of heavy metal is built, Besides these, the parameters of this model are validated integrated with the actual data. From the different aspects of economic losses for considering, damage assessment model for pollution accidents is built, with which the loss of pollution accidents can be calculated. Based on these three models for coupling, environmental risk assessment model for pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo method is built. After heavy metal pollution accident scene of the north river upstream is setted, Use this model to evaluate the effect that pollution accidents give on the Foshan City from two aspects, and calculate the environmental risk of Foshan City, the result showed that:no matter any result is right, the environmental risk of study area is already very serious, especially for the second case of the calculation result, the environmental risk of the study area is more severe, the total of significant risk and serious risk is up to 21%, potential sources of pollution should be disposed at once.