Study On Landslide Prediction And Classification System

Landslide is a kind of geological hazards, each year, 800 people were killed by landslide at least. It is estimated that, there were more than 50 giant collapses, more than 140 giant landslides and more than 150 giant mud-rock flows all over our country, also, more than 3000 large collapses, more than 2000 large landslides and more than 2000 large mud-rock flows. Every year, about 20 billion Yuan direct economic loss caused by collapses, landslides and mud-rock flow, not to mention indirect economic losses. The degree of geological disasters is only less than the earthquake hazard. Therefore, researches on prediction of landslide hazards have great significance.This article focused on the prediction of landslide and established the Weakening Improved Grey Prediction Model, and then proposed the theory of classification system for the purpose of landslide prediction based on the results of previous, and then programmed the time prediction analysis system for landslide prediction and stability analysis system by MATLAB secondary development technology, and so as to do deeply study on landslides prediction. The main work and research results are as follows:This article summarized the study of landslide predicted state at home and abroad systematically and analyzed the direction of development of landslide prediction and analyzed the impact of the factors leading to landslides. This article also defined the main elements of the landslide prediction and the focus and the ignore point of the landslide prediction, and this article proposed that the combination of qualitative and quantitative information and also consider the landslide macro information is the main line of the landslide prediction in Three Gorges Reservoir Area.This article also gave a detailed analysis of the landslide prediction and the necessary conditions which lead to landslide and factors which affect the stability of landslide, meanwhile, this article established the Weakening Improved Grey Prediction Model and examined its application of reliability.On the basis of summary and analysis of the previous landslide classification, this article got the purpose of the previous landslide classification that was landslide controls and investigations, and then proposed the theory of classification system for the purpose of landslide prediction.By analyzing the monitoring data of the landslideâ… in research area through MATLAB secondary development technology, this article got the points that the landslide is now in the later stages of constant rate deformation, and then the landslideâ… will be in the early stages of accelerated deformation from September 2010 to December 2011.Study the natural and landform the landslideâ… in research area and then do some experiments on the landslide soil for the purpose of getting the soil parameter. This article got the point that the landslideâ… was in a not very stable condition by stability analysis.By comparative analysis of stability, this article got the point that the stability factor will drop when the water level rise but the highest water level not lead to the minimum stability factor.