Effects Of Temperature On Daily Death Counts In Three Countries, China

Objective The climate change has become the most important one of the world top ten environmental problems. To explore the effects of daily mean temperature on daily death counts, by collecting data of meteorology, daily death and the air pollution in three countries in China from 2005 to 2006. And it explores the variation and relationship between meteorology, daily death and air pollution in the study period; GAM are used to examine effects of daily mean temperature on daily counts of non-accidental death for the period from 2005 to 2006. Count the effect in quantity. Strengthen health education, susceptible population protection, enhance the monitoring capacity on population health and to avoid further possible health effects.Method According to previous monitoring results, using EXCEL2003, SPSS 16.0 and SAS8.2 statistical software, descriptive analysis, independent samples t-test and Pearson correlation method, to describe the major meteorology, non-accidental Temperature-related death and diseases such as circulatory diseases and respiratory diseases and the relationship in short term exposure of PM10,SO2 and NO2 and the meteorology; GAM are used to examine effects of daily mean temperature on daily counts of non-accidental death by controlling the daily air pollution for the period from 2005 to 2006; use formula to quantitive the effects of daily mean temperature on daily counts of non-accidental death in three countries.Result (1) the variation of daily mean temperature, humidity and pressure is-24.1-29.5℃,16%-93%,970-1020HPa in 2005-2007,Harbin, And the difference of Humidity between three years which has statistical significance (P<0.05); the variation of daily mean temperature, humidity and pressure is-13.6-30.5℃,10%-97%,910-945HPa in Taiyuan; the variation of daily mean temperature, humidity and pressure is 7.6-32.9℃,17%-96%,988-1030HPa in Shenzhen, And the difference of Pressure between three years which has statistical significance (P<0.05);(2) when daily mean temperature exceed 21℃,22℃,27℃, as average temperature increase 1 per degree, the daily death counts of change percent is 3.452%,3.257%,3.672% in three countries; when daily mean temperature below 21℃,22℃,27℃, as average temperature below 1 per degree, the daily death counts of change percent is 0.557%, 0.648%,1.635% in three countries;(3)the temperature contribute death in Harbin Taiyuan and Shenzhen in 2005 is 163,100 and 130,the mortality rate is 62.3/million, 29.1/million和15.7/million; the temperature contribute death in Harbin Taiyuan and Shenzhen in 2006 is 137,125 and 110,the mortality rate is 49.1/million,36.3/million和13.0/million.Conclusions (1) Analysis the level of weather in Harbin Taiyuan and Shenzhen in 2005-2007, The daily mean temperature is gradually increased with latitude rises, the two year's difference is of no statistical siganificance(P>0.05); daily concentration of PM10,SO2,NO2 show that all these pollutants in Shenzhen are of standards by laws, PM10 is still the main pollutant in North countries as Harbin and Taiyuan which is out of standards by laws.(2) respiratory diseases and diseases of circulatory system have been the acute ones that is harming the health. (3) there is a certain correlation between the daily mean concentrations of PM10,SO2,NO2 and daily mean temperature, humidity and air pressure.(4) there is a certain relationship between daily mean temperature and daily death counts.