System Dynamics Model Of The Erosion And Deposition Evolution Of The Yellow River Mouth

Since the 1970s, the sand and water that the Yellow River carried into the sea has largely reduced, even presents serious closure, causes the sink river course and the river mouth silts up seriously, brings threat for the river mouth flood prevention. The speed of the Yellow River delta extending reduced obviously. The coastal area has drawn back seriously, which increased the difficulty of changing mining oil field from sea to land. Studying the changing tendency, Seeking the marginal value of the water and the sand that make the delta continent to the dynamical equilibrium and forecasts its change tendency, not only has the very vital practical significance to the Yellow River delta's government, the territorial management as well as the oil gas resources' exploration and the development, but also provide research example of the world abundant sand river delta tends to the whole dynamical equilibrium.On the basis of previous studies, I tried a new method to simulate the evolution approach of the Yellow River mouth - System Dynamics. This paper uses system dynamics to analyze the impact factors to the evolution of Yellow River mouth and their intrinsic links, establish simulation to the land-ocean interaction, and validate in new water and sand conditions. Experimental results show that the use of the system dynamics method to simulate the evolution of the Yellow River mouth is effective, and the establishment of the system dynamics model can reflect the erosion of the basic laws of the Yellow River Delta.