Study On The Impacts Of Climate Changes On The Runoff And The Plain Reservoir In Akesu River Basin

At the present, the world is challenged seriously by three major problems which are the population expansion, the resource shortage, environment worsens and which has the close relationship with the water resources. The question of water resources shortage will be affecting the various countries'economy and the social development especially important in China which is densely populated and congenital condition of water resources not superior. The Aksu River Basin is one of global climate reflection sensitive ecology frail belts, simultaneously the water resources question has become restricts one of its economical development important attributes. Therefore, this article research and reasonably mixes as well as aspects and so on society,economy and environment sustainable development to the Aksu River Basin water resources development use has the vital significance.The paper primary coverage is as follows:(1)Based on the temperature, precipitation from the basic weather stations (1961-2008) in Aksu River Basin, and the higher-resolution HadAM3H obtained from the Hadley Centre of the United Kingdom,this paper analyzed the tendency of temperature and precipitation.The results are: the temperature have an ascending tendency, extent is 0.20℃/10a, the extent of winter is bigger; the precipitation have also an ascending tendency, evtent is 10.9mm/10a, the extent of summer is bigger; the analyzed results of precipitation and temperature under SRES A2 and B2 scenario shows: comparison of the precipitation change scenarios in 2020s,2050s and 2080s, it can be found the precipitation and temperature present an increasing trend.(2)The water resources are sensitive to the climiate change in the Aksu River Basin. The sensitivity of runoff to climate change is studied with future climate change scenarios: the temperature change of 0.5℃,1.0℃,1.5℃and 2.0℃,the precipitation change of 10%,20% and 30%. The runoff is more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation. The future climate change will probably decrease the water resources in the Aksu River Basin. The conclusion from Hadley scenario indicates the runoff will have an decreasing trend.(3)Ineffective evaporation and leakage of three plain reservoirs are analyzed in Aksu River Basin from 1981 to 2006. The results shows: The three large plain reservoirs lose approximately 6.28 hundred million in a year. At last, the paper forecast the tendency of ineffective evaporation of three large plain reservoirs with future climate change scenarios: the temperature change of 1.0℃and 2.0℃.