Research On Information Forecasting And Spatial Analysis In Fast Estimation Of Earthquake Disaster

The purpose of rapid earthquake hazard evalution is to estimate earthquake size, influence scale and loses rapidly in short time after earthquake based on the following aspects such as the kinds of construction in disaster area,the statistical data about population and economy situation of the area, the loss model and so on. The result of the estimation will provide kinds of necessary information to earthquake emergency command system to bring forward emergency countermeasure.More accurate estimate result can offer more reasonable decision-making to the earthquake emergency command system, especially in the initial stage after earthquake (30 min).Therefore, how to enhance the assessable result of earthquake disaster is the primary issue to improve earthquake emergency command work.The earthquake emergency command system of Gansu province have been constructed and is put into normal use during the tenth five year plan.As a significant part of the command system, the fast estimation model of earthquake disaster has some shortages and need to be improved.In this thesis, some exploration and research have been made from the following aspects aiming at improving the precision of fast earthquake disaster evaluation and providing reliable information for earthquake emergency command system.First of all, population data and the gross domestic product (GDP) in stricken-region are fundamental and significant aspects in fast assessment of destructive earthquake. Their accuracy will affect the results of assessment directly. Long period for data collection and poor up-to-date state are also the factors which would affect the precision of the fast earthquake disaster evaluation.Based on the review of the technical development and the current situation about the human population and GDP forecast, in this thesis, in order to provide more accurate foundation data to fast earthquake disaster evaluation,various population and GDP growth models fitted different county level of Gansu province were set up firstly by means of GM(1,1) method, GM(1,1) combined linear regression, and GM(1,1) combined Markovmethod,and dynamic computing was operated based on static data to better fit the actual situation,besides, preliminary study about population growth models fitted town level of Gansu province is made.Secondly, the seismic intensity attenuation relationship is of great fundamentality to the earthquake emergency response and desision. Furthermore, it has obvious different characters in different regions.Considering that the intensity attenuation relationship research for Gansu area is deficient and there has not a public one for use, in this paper,30 earthquakes occurred since 1927 in Gansu province were selected, and the host shake's magnitude of which were all greater than or equal to 4.7. On the basis of above materials, the statistical relationship between magnitude and epicentral intensity of Gansu area was achieved at first,and then, 20 earthquakes occurred during 1950-2004 in Gansu province were selected, and the epicenter intensity were greater than or equal to V. On the basis of above materials, the intensity attenuation relationship fitted Gansu area was achieved also.The formulas not only could be used in the earthquake emergency command system,but also the seismic engineering fields of Gansu.Thirdly, given the magnitude, longitude and latitude, the vector map of isoseismal line will be generatend automaticly in Arcgis. According to the spatial overlap analysis between the isoseismal line map and the administrative map of county, town even village with the latest population and GDP data getted from the growth model, the information such as the latest human population of county grade in seismic disastrous area, the GDP data of same region could be acquired timely, in addition, the area distribution of different county or town in vairous intensity section, the name list of involved town and village could be achieved at the same time.The statistical information mentioned above is helpful for decision-maker to acquaint the range of earthquake damage intuitively, and estimate the afflicted area relatively serious preliminarily.In a word, the research achievements in this paper would give some supplement and perfection for the earthquake emergency command system of Gansu province. Moreover, some information support could be offered for the future earthquake emergency counterplan according to the prediction of the key basic information and the fast seismic disaster estimation of the future strong earthquake based on the research results.