The Impacts Of Climate Change On The Distribution Of Rare Or Endangered Species In China And Adaptation Strategies

It is crucial to know accurately the effects of climate change on the distribution of rare or endangered species and to make the measurements of adaptation to climate change for the biodiversity conservation in future.In this study,68 rare or endangered plants species and 15 rare or endangered animals species were selected,CART(classification and regression tree) niche model was used,the impacts of climate change on the distribution range and distribution pattern of rare or endangered species were analyzed during periods of 2020s, 2050s,2080s or 2100s under A2 and B2 climate change scenarios.Additionally,the correlation between the distributions of species and change in annual mean temperature or changes in annual precipitation was analyzed.Based on the analysis of current protection measures of rare or endangered species in China,the adaptations of rare or endangered species to climate change were suggestion.The results are as follows(1) Climate change in China will cause change in the distribution of species of 68 rare or endangered plants species,and it will also cause 54%of rare or endangered plants species, such as Persican saxoul,Chinese may-apple,Filed circaeaster,Cercidiphyllum japonicum, Chinese tuliptree etc,decrease the distribution range,and it will also cause 9%of rare or endangered plants species,such as Tsoong's tree,Tunica-like psammosilene,Mongolian tetraena,Alsophila spinulosa,expand the distribution.And Climate change in China will also cause 12%of the rare or endangered plants species,such as Zhennan, Cryptomeria-like taiwania,Henry emmenopterys,reduce greatly the distribution,and it will also cause 25%of the rare or endangered plants species,such as Bigcone spruce, Manglietiastrum sinicum,Mongolian potaninia,Larix potaninii var.chinensis,lose the distribution.(2) Climate change in China will cause change in the distribution of species of 15 rare and endangered animals,and it will cause 56%of rare and endangered animals,such as wild yak,Tibetan Antelope,Wild Camel,Tibetan wild ass and so on,expand the distribution, and it will also cause 31%of rare and endangered animals,such as black bear Goitred Ling etc,reduce the distribution,and it will also cause 13%of the distribution of rare and endangered animals,such as Sable etc,lose the distribution.(3) Climate change in China will also cause change in the distribution pattern of rare and endangered species.Following climate change,31%of rare or endangered plants,such as Chinese money maple,Sargent spruce,will move towards high-altitude or high-latitude regions,and the distribution of 21%the species,such as soongorica,Oficinal magnolia, will be fragmented,and the center region of the current distribution of 16%the species will reduce,and the east region of current distribution of 1%the species will reduce,and south region of current distribution of 4%of the species will also reduce,and the west region of current distribution of 9%of species will reduce,and the west region of current distribution of 10%of species will also reduce.(4) Climate change will cause change in distribution patterns of species diversity. Following climate change,the rare or endangered species diversity pattern will change,and the species diversity in some regions will reduce.At the same time,following climate change,the distribution of some species in nature reserves will change,and number of rare or endangered species in some nature reserves will decrease,while the number of rare or endangered species in some protected areas will increase.(5) The adaptation of rare or endangered species to climate change mainly consider from government management,species conservation department(such as nature reserves,forest parks,scenic spots,botanical gardens),and specific aspects of adaptation measurements of species.Government should correctly handle the relationship between socio-economic development and biodiversity conservation,and should adjusts the national biodiversity conservation policy to address climate change.Additionally,the national policy-makers should take full account of the effects of climate changes to enhance adaptation of biodiversity conservation to climate change.Species protection(nature reserves,protected areas,protection of residential,scenic spots,forest parks,zoos,botanical gardens,etc.) in the management objectives and strategies should consider the adaptation to climate change, expand the scope of protection,and consider animals and plants long-distance migration in the design of protected areas,and build the integration of the protection of species,and reduce the threat to nature reserve,create and restore buffer zone around the nature reserve. The adaptation measures of specific species to climate change mainly consider from the strengthening in situ and ex situ conservation of species,and protect endangered species gene,and consider the spatial distribution of potential habitat,and bulid dynamic and integrated protection of habitat.Additionally,helping seed dispersal and pollination,and helping migration of species to increase the adaptive capacity of natural species,and increase reproduction and rejuvenation of small number of species,and provide water and food and so on.Major conclusion is as follows:Following climate change,the temperature and precipitation in China will change,and the change will cause change in the distribution of rare and endangered animals and plants. Climate change in China will cause some species,such as Persican saxoul,Chinese may-apple,Filed circaeaster,Cercidiphyllum japonicum,Chinese tuliptree reduce the distribution,some species,such as Larix potaninii var.chinensis,lost the distribution, some species,such as Cyatheaceae,expand the distribution.Additionally,some rare and endangered animals,such as wild camels,Tibetan wild ass,will expand distribution range some species,such as Goitred Ling(Mongolia subspecies),reduce the distribution,and some species,such as Sable lost distribution.Climate change in China will also cause change in the distribution pattern of rare and endangered species.Following climate change,many rare and endangered species will move towards high-altitude or high-latitude regions,and some species will migrate towards different directions,and the distribution of some species will be fragmented,and some species will expand the distribution.Climate change will cause change in distribution patterns of species diversity.Following climate change,the rare and endangered species diversity pattern will change,and some species will change in the distribution of nature reserves,and number of rare and endangered species in some nature reserves will decrease,while the number of rare and endangered species in some protected areas will increase.The adaptation of species to climate change mainly consider from the government management,species conservation department,and specific aspects of adaptation measurements of species.Management of state and government should correctly handle the first socio-economic development and biodiversity protection.Species conservation sector need to consider adaptation to climate change in the nature reserve management objectives and strategies,and need to consider long-distance movement of animals and plants in the protected areas design,and build the integrated protection of species,reduce the threat of nature reserves,restoration of the surrounding buffer zone and strengthen the protection of non-protected areas.Specific species measures for adaptation to climate change mainly consider from the strengthening in situ and ex situ conservation of species, reduce non-adverse effects of climate change,and adopt dynamic and integrated protection measurements. Problem and suggestionThe distribution of species were determined by many factors,this study only consider the climatic factors to analysis the effects of climate change on the distribution of rare and endangered species,the impact of the soil,biological and other environmental factors on the distribution of species did not be considered.Additionally,due to limited time,for many species,only A2 scenarios of climate change was used to analysis the impacts climate change on the distribution,and a small number of species,the A2 and B2 scenarios of climate change were used to analysis the impacts climate change on the distribution. The tentative adaptation measurements of species to climate change in this study were given,and effectively adaptation measurements of species to climate change should be suggestion.In future,the methods should be improved,and the effects of climate change on the rare and endangered species in China should analyze,and more perfect adaptation strategies should be established.