The Predict Of Groundwater Resource And The Study Of Development About Yangzhuang Water Source In Shandong Province

Water is the most important natural resources and stratagem resources society. The lack of water is becoming an urgent problem in our country because it has greatly influenced the development of economy in 2lth century. Groundwater resources are an important part of the whole water resources in the north of China. By the general and scientific investigation, analysis, predict and research of groundwater resource, it has important practical significance to rational exploit, protecting and saving groundwater.Yangzhuang water source was located in Yangzhuang basin at the junction of Zaozhuang City and Tengzhou City whose groundwater resource was the most abundant in the two cities. Yangzhuang basin was a complete hydrogeological unit with clear and fill the boundary conditions, perfect supply, runoff, deposit and drain terms. Therefore, Yangzhuang water source was the typical of the northern karst water. Based on the collection and analysis of materials such as landform, terrain, climate, hydrology and hydrogeology, elaborated the stratum lithology systematically of the study area, analyzed the occurrence condition distributed rule of groundwater and analyzed the rule of supply, runoff, deposit and drain of groundwater and its dynamic characteristics.Based on the above research, the author built the mathematic model of groundwater flow system, simulated the groundwater flow by the MODFLOW part of GMS5.0(Groundwater Modeling System).The area of the calculated zone is 137km2, the software used the finite difference method to calculating, gridding by rectangle. The simulation period was from 2004.1 to 2004.12, every time interval is a month, and the time step automaticly controlled by the iteration of error standard of the model. The time from 2004.1.1 to 2004.6.30 is used to diagnosis the model and the time from 2004.7.1 to 2004.12.31 is used to verify the validity of the model. Identify and test the established numerical simulation model of groundwater from the aspects such as hydro-geological parameters, the process of curve and the flow field, etc. The results were very good through identification and confirmation of the model. The numerical model can be used as the prediction model of groundwater flow because the numerical model established objectively and described the movement of groundwater flow characteristics.According to the available groundwater material, combined with the vision of national economic development planning, the author selected the data of 2005 as the initial water level. Choosed the observed water level of 2005.4.10 as the initial water level and defined three prediction periods, the water level forecast for the 2006-2015 period. Model prediction results showed that before the year 2010, groundwater recharge was greater than the total production in Yangzhuang water source and karst water system in a balanced state. The groundwater flow field changed little in the whole study area. The groundwater level decreased slightly and around the water source appeared a funnel trend until the year 2010. With the increasing exploitation of Yangzhuang water source and the Longshantou water source put into use after 2010, the author predicted that around Yangzhuang water source would form a certain range of funnel, the center elevation of the lowest water level would be about 36m and the area of the funnel would be 0.21km2. In addition, the surrounding of Longshantou water source was predicted to appearing a funnel trend.Through investigating and collecting data, we can analyze status of Yangzhuang water source and exploitation scheme from the near future to forward. The result proclaimed problems about the water pollution and conflict between exploitation and supply. In order to protect the groundwater resource, put forward the development and utilization of water resources protection measures, including improving the karst water system by increasing the groundwater supply and drain, adjusting the water resources use in different industry,srtictly controlling the exploitation of groundwater, developping water saving irrigation technology, establishing water saving agriculture, strengthening management, monitoring changes in water environment and so on to provide strategic decision and basis on reasonable exploit and scientific manage of Yangzhuang water source.