Numerical Simulation Study And Prediction Of The Landslide Based On Monitoring Data

The deformation monitoring of landslide is an important content of the safety monitoring of landslide, it is one of the important tasks to make timely, reasonable and effective analysis for landslide observation data for getting the deformation regularities and the safety states of landslide, and the safety status and the stability of the landslide can be judged by the analysis results.The advanced monitoring, the numerical simulation and grey theory are applied to study the Zhangmu landslide in Tibet. Subsequently, this paper take Zhangmu landslide in Tibet for example, study how to dispose and lay monitoring points and how to set up the 3D model of the landslide. In the end, the grey system theory is applied to predict the tendency of the landslide. The major results are as follows:(1) Detailedly presented how to choose monitoring items, instruments, how to dispose and lay monitoring points.(2) Through monitoring data collection and analysis the data of the high slope, determined the slope stability, timely adjusted the design parameters and protection measures.(3)Leads into FLAC procedure—an advanced geotectonic engineering calculation software, introduces the basic characteristic,operation method of FLAC3D,furthermore, uses FLAC3D to analyze and calculate the stability of the Zhangmu landslide.(4) Based on the actual displacement of the monitoring data, and established GM (1 .1) prediction model to forecast the displacement development of the actual slope. (5) Through the combination of monitoring data analysis shows that the landslide is in steady state.FLAC numerical simulation of landslide displacement monitoring to the security and stability of the landslide, grey theory of the actual landslide displacement deformation forecasts, compared with the experimental data that the precision of model itself is very high, the error in fitting and prediction is fairly small.