Study On Observation And Prediction Of Groundwater Dynamic In Shijiazhuang Area

Shijiazhuang area, Hebei Province, is the most typical area of exceed exploitation in North China Plain .Since the 1960s, as the industrial and agricultural development centre in Hebei Plain, the scale of industrial and agricultural of Shijiazhuang areas incresed rapidly, as this area short of surface water resources and the changing of precipitation and evaporation condition, its water resources are insufficient to meet the needs of development. So they have to make up for the shortcomings through exploitation of groundwater, the extraction of groundwater greatly exceedsd the recharge. Under this circumstances , the ground water level rapid decline in this region, then formed a descend funnel, and in the last few decades the scale of the descend funnel is gradually increasing, and companied with such problems as water pollution, cracks, collapse of the environmental geological problems et.This article first collected the information of the hydrology, hydrogeology, geological features, and other conditions in the region, then analysised the change of supplies, flow, and charge conditions of the groundwater in this area according to these natural and social environment, to obtain the the characteristics of the groundwater dynamic changes. , We can get a well understanding of the groundwater dynamic changes through analysised the various factors affecting groundwater dynamic, Then we can make a dynamic forecasting model with the application of the time series , this can help us to achieve a reasonable exploitation and sustainable exploitation of underground water resources, prevent the emergence of environment geological disasters exacerbated.In this artcle we used the Geolonogy Information System software(GIS)to display the changes of exploiting groundwater in this region from 1959 to 2006, these can clearly show the changes of groundwater flow field in Shijiazhuang area. Then we did the time series analysis of groundwater dynamic of Shijiazhuang area with Visual Basic(VB) programming language and SPSS software. Through the calculation and analysis, we can optimize the frequency of monitoring groundwater dynamic, to meet the dynamic observation needs of the groundwater level data, and we can get groundwater dynamic time series model to achieve the purpose of forecasting.