Numerical Simulation Of The Effect Of Mean Sea Level Rise On Tide And Storm Surge In The East China Sea

Global warming and mean sea level rise have come to be a focused problem now. Mean sea level (MSL for short) rise may significantly aggravate the disaster of coast erosion. Astronomic tide and storm surge are two important factors taken into consideration in designing coastal engineering. Thus, it's meaningful for study of effect of sea level rise on tide and storm surge. In this paper numerical simulation method is employed to study this issue.ECOM is used to simulate astronomic tide of the East China Sea (ECS for short). The mean absolute error between simulation and observation of M₂, S₂, O₁ and K₁ are 6.89cm, 6.28cm, 3.26cm and 4.29cm in amplitudes and 8.9°, 9.0°, 6.7°and 22.0°in phase-lag specifically. The result shows that numerical model could near-really describe the tidal character of the ECS.Coupled with Jelesnianski circle wind model, ECOM is applied to simulate typhoon storm surge in the ECS. Process of TC0012, TC0209 and TC0314 are selected, calculated extreme surge elevation and its occurring time show good consistency with that of observed which confirms validation of ECOM to simulate typhoon storm surge in the ECS.Tidal sensitivity experiment shows that when MSL is of 1.0 m higher than normal: a) Coastal zones are affected more than that of deeper ocean. b) Semidiurnal tidal constituent varies more than that of diurnal tidal constituents. c) Amplitude of tidal component increases in most region while decreases in some region, for example, the amplitude of M2 co-tidal in Ganghaw-man is of 20 cm larger, while that of the mouth of Yangtze River is of 2 cm smaller. d) Most amphidromic points of tidal component move to deeper ocean direction.Sensitivity experiments for storm surge shows that as MSL rises: a) Variation of extreme surge elevation is non-uniform spatially, coastal regions are affected more than that of deeper ocean. b) Variation of storm surge grows in phase with argument of MSL rising. c) For most coastal stations, extreme high surge elevation decreases. d) Compared to variation of MSL the effect of MSL rise on storm surge is considerably finite. Whole speaking, numerical simulation shows that MSL rise makes little effect on storm surge.