Climatic Change And Apple Risk Analysis And Regionalization Of The Freeze Injury In Florescence Of Shaanxi Fruit Region

The fruit industry develops swiftly and violently in Shanxi,has become the pillar industry,in 2007 Shanxi Province apple sown area 7,300,000 Chinese acres,output 7,010,000 tons.The apple florescence's meteorological condition to the same year apple output,the quality had the decisive significance.Regarding the influence apple florescence's climatic element,has studied its change characteristic and to the apple florescence influence closely.Has established the apple flowering season relationship between living things and the seasons model and has simulated the future climatic change influence,will intensify the characteristic according to the future apple flowering season bitter experience freeze injury to complete the Shanxi Province fruit area and north expands the possible region flowering season freeze injury to have the frequency and the risk analysis.This article uses the Shanxi Province fruit industry county(area)1961-2007 year daily mean temperature and is extremely lowest,the highest temperature,the precipitation material and 6 apple relationship between living things and the seasons observation station relationship between living things and the seasons material, applied many year mean values,the 5a running mean,anomalous,the standard deviation,the wavelet analysis,the wavelet coefficient variance analysis and so on many kinds of statistical methods to analyze fruit characteristics and so on area year and winter,spring precipitation,temperature change and jump,remarkable sexual cycle,has carried on the temperature/precipitation age border change comparison.Has analyzed the Shanxi Province fruit area climatic change characteristic and to the apple florescence influence.Has established apple flowering season relationship between living things and the seasons model y=-1.4*T1-1.13*T2+0.11*r+95.1.In the model y is the beginning flower date number predicted value,T1 is in the January average temperature,T2 is in the March average temperature,r is late March sunshine hours.This model precision is high.Has simulated the future climatic change to the Shanxi fruit area influence situation,finally indicated that the Shanxi fruit area the climatic change tendency will cause the apple florescence to be ahead of time in the future,encounters the freeze injury the probability to be more serious in the future, does not favor the fruit industry production.If the future Shanxi fruit area winter either the spring temperature will elevate 1-2℃or the sunshine hours are few for 10-20 hours,then florescence early 1-3d.If the elevation of temperature scope is bigger,the florescence are ahead of time more.This research is helpful under the forecast climatic change background the Shanxi apple blossoms the time,is realizes the flowering season regulation to provide the scientific basis.Elaborated the meteorological condition to fruit's industry influence,analyzed the flowering season freeze injury,the fruit to expand time high fruit industry meteorological disaster's and so on warming up evil,hail,drought,fruit coloration mature period low temperature,continuous rain targets and the harm,has carried on the example analysis to each kind of fruit industry meteorological disaster.Pointed out that the flowering season freeze injury affects the Shanxi fruit industry most main meteorological disaster.The application historic record,the disaster investigation and the GIS technology, have completed the Shanxi Province fruit area successfully for the first time and north expand the possible region flowering season freeze injury to have the frequency and the risk analysis,has solved the flowering season freeze injury risk analysis quantification problem,divides into take the county as the unit the risk four ranks,has conducted qualitative and the quantitative research to the regional flowering season freeze injury risk,and take the rank degree expression risk result,as planted north the region to expand has provided the scientific basis.This research significance lies in advances the Shanxi Province fruit industry structure and the cropping system adjustment.The optimized fruit industry region layout,the promotion superiority agricultural product is centralized to the superiority production area,forms the superiority agricultural product industry belt,sharpens the fruit industry productivity.