The Research And Application Of A Kind Of Epidemic Mathematical Model

In recent years, some new infectious diseases like SARS and the Bird Flu appeared. They erupted rapidly and has been widespread in our country and some other countries in short time. They threat the people's health and safety greatly and affect social stability and the economical development directly. Humanity is in the first stage in finding out how to prevent and control the new-emerged infectious diseases. It is more and more important to master these epidemic diseases' rule effectively and prevent the epidemic diseases to spread widely.The mathematical model has the important part in controlling the epidemics' prevailing situation as the effective method of researching the dynamic rule and the mechanism of these epidemics in the recent years .This article mainly studied the SIR mathematical model of infectious diseases under the fixed population and its application in SAKS. Firstly it introduced its establishment, the application, the review and the forecast of its development .The second chapter introduced the general form and the result of the general stochastic model of the infectious diseases. The third chapter discussed the SIR model's solution and its parameters' Baycsion estimations. Then the fourth and the fifth chapter used the SIR model and the nerve network model separately fitting and forecasting the prevailing situation of SARS in Beijing . Lastly it analyzed the effect of the SIR model with which we discussed the epidemic diseases.This article fully used the Bayes Theory and the method of matrix patition to produce the Baycsion estimations of the SIR model's parameters. The example indicated that, this method is very effective in practice.