Study On Probability Risk Assessment Of Major Hazard Installations Monitoring System

Probability risk assessment is the combination of qualitative and quantitative method of system analysis, which is proposed in the field of the nuclear industry, aerospace, chemical and other fields. Thought it, we can analyze effectively the potential risk factors of system, evaluate quantificationally the risk of system. Due to the complexity of the major hazard installations monitoring system , the traditional methods can not fully apply to the risk assessment of the system. Therefore, analyzing the risk factors of major hazard installations monitoring system and building proper probability risk assessment model is significative in theory and practice.This paper uses some theories such as system theory, system analysis theory, probability risk assessme methods, and other risk analysis theory, analyzes the risk factors of major hazard installations monitoring system, discusses the strcuture and function of the system, summarizes its characteristic and the aim of estimating with PRA. Moreover, this paper improves on the traditional model based on the results of primary researched, brings forward the top event occurrence probability model of fault tree and dynamic fault tree in the differente conditions based on the theory of binary decision diagram, zero-supressed binary decision diagram and set operation, solves the problems of the repeated and relative events in the event tree, builds the PRA assessment model. Additionally, major hazard installations monitoring system in Beijing has been taken as an example to test the practicability of the improved probability risk model. Assessment results show that the method is feasible, detect the problem and shortage of the monitoring system, and provide credible decision-making for enterprises improving measure.