The Analysis Of Time-series Runoff Data Of The Main Inflow Rivers In The Boston Basin

Water resource persistent utilization is the key question to the sustainable development of social economy of fragile area in China Northwest entironment. Boston Lake, located in the central of Xinjiang Tien Shan , was regarded as the biggest fresh water lack of inland of our country and its water resource reserve played an important role to the local economy development and ecological environment. From recent several decades, due to the climate factor and influence of natural environment development, it caused unstable river discharge so that caused Boston Lake drainage area appearing continuous wet and dry years.In order to analyze the river discharge and discharge process of upper and middle streams of Boston Lake, estimate the influence to surface runoff from Boston lake drainage area's climate change and human activity and coordinate relationship between Boston Lake itself water demand and ecological water consumption of middle and down streams, utilizing hydrology and weather data from 1956 to 2005 and analyzing river discharge inpoured to Boston Lake, this paper uses integro-difference curve to analyze high/low discharge phenomenon and gets a result that Kaidu river and Huangshui channel were low discharge from 1972, Qingshui river came into low discharge from 1959 and low discharge of these three rivers were lasting to 1988. Compared with river discharge before 1972, the descend rate of up stream's discharge of Kaidu river was inferior to downstream. The up stream's change is due to unstable of nature and the downstream is due to climate and human activity. Therefore, directed at up stream and downstream of Kaidu river respectively, this paper studies river discharge characteristics in growing season (from April t Sept.) and non-growing season (from Oct. to March of the coming year). In the middle and downstream of the river, river discharge was stable around 1972 in non-growing season. However, from 1972 to 2005, the descend rate of river discharge of downstream was twice to half and twice lower than up stream. This was mainly caused by human activity. Therefore, we can safely conclude that during low discharge period, human activity is the dominating factor to the change of middle and down stream's river discharge around 1972.In the inland of Northwest area, there isn't perfect hydrological drainage model can be used for corresponding numerical model of climate change and water resource. Referring to overseas integro-difference dividing high/low flow method, this paper analyzes flow data of main rivers of Boston Lake, such as Kaidu river, Yanqi, Baolang Sumu river hydrological station, Huangshui channel and Qingshui river, studies space-time distributing specific rule of five decades'river discharge, estimates response of river discharge to climate and human activity and hopes to provide some concrete theory for establishing attempering water resource proposal of continuous wet and dry years of Boston Lake located in rainless region.