The Periodicity Of Climate Change In Daihai Region Revealed By Markov Chain Model

Global Change Science plays a significant role in studying and understanding the mechanism and evolution of Earth system on which human beings live. In recent decades, human activities have changed the Earth's environment. The green house effect, global warming, hole of ozonosphere, changes of land use and land cover, drain of water resources have made us aware the limited potency that the environment could suffer before collapse. At the same time, researches are concentrated on the evolution of the global change, because knowing the past and mechanism of the climate can help us predicting the future.The Daihai region is an enclosed basin, its lacustrine sediments indicating the climate are well preserved. Pollen anlysis of this area in last 1200 years reveals the vegetation and climate varition in accordance with other area. Based on Pollen-climate transfer function established in northern China, the composition of pollen can be quantitatively transfered into numerical data of temperature and precipitation.Markov chain model, which is a mathematical way solving dynamic variation of random serial, can be applied to analyze the data which the pollen composition of Daihai region has revealed. The outcome of the calculation betray that the climate variation has periods of 60a,80a,180a,400a,900a, which in relation with activity of the sun and earthquake. So we draw the conclusion that the sun activity and interior earth factor are the main drives of climate change even in short time scale.The innovation of this article is that: using Markov chain model to anlyze the periodicity of climate change; finding the main drive of climate change and the enlarged climate viberation due to human activity.