The Simulation Of Public Opinion And Election Under Cellular Automaton

Public opinion is the most opinions of the public to the specific affairs, which is the inherent phenomenon and characters of human society, which is subject to Nature, Society, Economy, Culture, Politics and Law etc, and it is a typical complexity system. In the aspects of simulating and predicting the development trend of human society, relaxing and adjusting the relationship between various groups in society, and accelerating the social development, public opinion plays a very important role. Thus it is valuable to make researches on the infection of public opinion. For investigating the evoluation of public opinion, people have built up a few public opinion models according to experience of society observation and opinion poll. Based on public opinion models, people have studied the formation of price, election etc.Based on the public opinion models that people have put forward, this paper mainly does two works :Firstly, in the public opinion process of the actuality society there exist various kinds of inside and outside factors that interference , obstruct , distort the information dissemination contents and make personnel to change their attitude randomly. The model is modified based on the one-dimension Sznajd consensus model. In the evolution of the new model, no final state appears any more. Certainly there is no time of reaching a stable state, the connection function image and the deciding time image are also changed. Theoretic analysis in the average field also indicates the same result. Secondly, because the election is an important content of political life, a kind of main way of carrying out the democracy and a concentrating embodiment of public opinion. Also, evoluation of public opinion is the foundation of public opinion variety. Therefore, this paper builds up the models of describing margin degree election baded on the rule blank, small-world network, BA network, and studies the influence of margin degree , manners of renewal and different parameters to candidates' eventual support rate.