Climate Change In Xinjiang Manas River Basin And Its Effects On Runoff Of Manas River

In this paper,the character of climate change in Manas river basin is based on the observed data of monthly air temperature ,monthly precipitation,monthly evaporation, monthly relative humidity collected at 6 basic meteorological stations over the period from 1961 to 2003. We analyzed the trend ,periodic, abrupt point,spatial variation of climate change of Manas River basin and microclimate change of oasis-desert region.We also analysed the relation between temperature,precipitation ,and evaporation .The result show that the temperature has significantly increased and the long-term warming rate of mean temperature change 0.33℃per ten years in Manas river area .The precipitation also shows increasing but not so significant .Air temperature was increasing in winter,precipitation was increasing in winter and summer and the evaporation have decreased significantly. In order to check the abrupt point of temperature ,precipitation and evaporation ,we use Mann -Kendall Method and Cumulative departure method .The conclusion as follow:The warming rate of temperature from low to high get to the level of jump change in 1975 ,the precipitation abrupt point analysis finds 1983 is the abrupt point ,and evaporation abrupt point analysis finds 1987 is the abrupt point .Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis of annual average temperature discover 10 years and 4,2.7 years period . Spectrum Analysis and Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis of precipitation show 3.6,5.7 years period and the evaporation has no significant period .Change of arid and moist shows that annual average evaporation ,arid index,there were descending trend . Spectrum Analysis and Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis of arid index show 5.7 year period .Moreover,we analysed the relation between temperature ,precipitation,and evaporation.The result show that temperature and evaporation have positive correlation but no significantly , precipation and evaporation have significantly negative correlation .In order to analyze the trend of runoff change of Manas river ,We collect and process the dischange rate data of KenSiWaT hygrometric station from 1961 to 2000 by using some mathematical statistical methods .the result shows that the variation of runoff is mainly caused by climate change ,especially in yearly...