The Statistic Analysis On Tropical Cyclone Over Southeastern Sea And Its Military Application

This thesis conducts the statistic analysis on TC (tropical cyclon) in 1981-2003 over our southeastern sea, and compounds their influences on military actions.Firstly, the interannual and seasonal statistical analysis of TC over these sea areas was conducted. It was found that the effective TC numbers in our southeastern sea had obvious interannual variability and seasonal variations. The interannual variability is relevant to La Nina year and El Nino year. More number of TC was relevant to La Nina year and less number of TC was relevant to El Nino year. The seasonal variation is normally distributed, that is, effective TCs occur from May to November, and about more than 85% of TC frequently occur from June to October. Besides, it was concluded that the interannual frequency of monthly effective TC also has obvious seasonal variation.Secondly, the statistical analysis of effective TC influence days was conducted. The analysis is about the distribution of monthly effective TC starting and ending times to area I and II defined in this paper. The starting time of effective TC is from mid-May to late-June, and the ending time is from late-October to late-November. In area III,the starting time of effective TC is from mid-May to late-July and ending time is from mid-October to late-November. Besides, The monthly influence days of effective TC were analyzed and concluded that, in these 3 areas, the influence days were in normal distribution, maximum number of days were in August or September; the average continuing influence days of monthly individual effective TC were 3. 3 days,3.5 days and 2.5 days respectively in area I, II and III. Non-influence days are obviously different from month to month; there were obvious the non-influence stages in every areas.Thirdly, the statistical analysis of effective TC tracks was studied over those areas. In area I and II, the tracks were most in northwestern direction, some moved to northeast and least moved westward. In area III,most tracks of TC through the Ryukyu Islands, some tracks in the southeast sea of the Ryukyu Islands, lest tracks in the northwest sea of the Ryukyu Islands.Based on the TC statistical analysis, the influence of TC on military action was studied in many aspects.