Research On The Brittleness Model Of Complex System

With the rapid development of the scale of complex system and its environment in the recent year, the complex system is more and more likely collapse due to different kind of influences from outside and inside, the brittleness of the complex system is becoming a serious problem. In this paper, we build a complex system's brittleness model, which has four levels, for analyzing the collapsing risk of the system.Firstly, based on the model, and with the traditional entropy theory, we point out that brittleness is a basic character of the complex system, and then we define the brittleness risk entropy, a new concept, to analyze the collapsing risk of the system. We get some useful result through our work on analyzing this new entropy, it will be a good base for the further work.Then, we decompose the model into two levels, the above one is related to the organization of the system, the bottom one is related to the environment outside. In the above level, based on the simplest one-way and two-way brittleness relation between two subsystems, we get the brittleness chain and brittleness circle, we also get three different kind of brittleness spreading models.In the bottom level, we analyze the brittleness factors and brittleness events, we consider the brittleness factor is the more basic and stable thing that result in the collapse of a complex system. So we take the brittleness factors as our object, we use Delphi method to classify the different factors, then we build the model based on the maximum entropy principle to calculate the collapsing risk which the system faced.Finally, we use our model in a traffic problem, the results from the model are rather reasonable.