Highway Traffic Model And Analysis

With rapid development of highway traffic, in order to settle traffic jam, monitor and control, get toll station service level condition, we should modeling traffic data and analysis. In the research of highway's operation, both of time series and queue theory are common tools. One essence character of time series is the denpendence of proximate data. Analysizing on the basis of this dependence, we can exactly describe highway traffic and get short-term forecast. Stochastic system is mainly applied in research of a kind of stochastic service system's congestion resulting from affluence of some stochastic factors, such as client arrive and service time. Applying time series analysis method to the traffic of a section of highway and toll station, we find both of them accord with SARIMA model. Also, we modeling the numbers of vehicles arriving at the toll station and get the forecast. Finally based on stochastic service system, we establish G/M/1/ queue model for the highway's toll station and make use of characteristic numbers in the ststionary condition to analyze service level of the toll station.This paper applied time series method and queue theory to analyse, following a research route 'Mathematics Analysis--Theory Reasoning--Data Demonstration', carry out some significant work as follows:1. Considering traffic data as a time series, it is dynamic and stochastic. It has distinct difference from time and season, so it has obvious periodicity. We make use of SARIMA model to modeling traffic data and analysis its character. The model excetly depicts highway traffic and toll station traffic, and give short-time forecast which confidence is ().2. Vehicle arrive at highway's toll station and receive service, which form a stochastic service system. We can use apply queue theory analysis toll station service level. Commonly, it can be chosen or as queue system models, which suppose Poisson arrive and service time obey exponent distribute, information desk's number is 1 or . The computation is simple because of Markov character. But highway traffic is not fit for this suppose. is commonly used.But here we think is more rational.