The Structure Characteristics And Variation Prediction Of Glacier Systems In Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Interior Area

Based on the Glacier Inventory Database of Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Research Institute, the article used the theory of mass balance and glacier system, calculated and analyzed the scale structure and the altitude structure of Glacier Systems in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Interior Area. The author firstly obtain the value of AAR ELA0 and the multinomial formula between ELA0 and AS/S0 At, then measured and computed ts according to Plateau climatic atlas. Used the glacier system's prediction model, under the climatic scenarios with temperature increasing rates of 0.01k yr-1, 0.02k yr-1, 0.03k yr-1 and 0.05k yr-1. Results show that the glaciers runoff increases firstly till the maximum, then decrease to zero. T1 denoted the time of maximum of glacier runoff, T2 denoted the time of recovering state, and T3 denoted the time of zero. Results show that T1 T2 T3 have negative correlation to temperature increasing rate and total ablation, while have positive correlation to Smed; W/W0 and |S/S0| have positive correlation to temperature increasing rate, while have negative correlation to total ablation. Under the same climatic scenarios, comparing the changing rate of area in 100th year after initial year, getting the sensitivity degree order of the glacier systems: 5Z3 >5Z2 >5Z6 >5Z1 >5Z4 >5Z5. Comparing with other glacier systems in other regions of China, Glacier Systems in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Interior Area has small sensitivity and big stabilization.