Simulating Arctic Sea Ice During 1979-1998

The variations of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean are simulated by using a improved high resolution Hibler dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model during 1979-1998. The model is driven by surface atmospheric and oceanic forcing consists of geostrophic winds ,surface air temperature, specific humidity, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes provided by International Arctic Buoy Program(IABP).The simulated results show that Arctic sea ice have noticeable seasonal and annual variability. Based on observed sea ice concentration data and simulated results, there has been noticeable downward trend in the extent of Arctic sea ice during 1979-1998. The model shows a substantial reduction of ice advection into the eastern Arctic from the Canada Basin, and an increase of ice export through Fram strait, both of which tend to deplete the sea ice of Arctic. Since the ice outflow through Fram strait affects the North Atlantic circulation, it's mterannual and seasonal variability is simulated during 1979-1998.The simulated results are compared with estimated of the sea ice outflow from satellite passive microwave data. The simulated results show that the seasonal and interannual variabilities of the ice outflow flux are high ranging from a low 1190. 13km3 of in the 79-80 flux to a high of 3910. 92km3 in 94-95. The comparison indicate that interannual variability of simulated and estimated outflow are very close, both of them have an upward trend in the 20 years. But 20 years average quantity of simulated outflow is less than the quantity of estimated outflow .The simulated outflow is about 90% of estimated .For study the relationship between temperature and sea ice of Arctic and the velocity of wind how to influence Arctic sea ice, some ideal modeling are run. We think both the temperature and velocity of wind can noticeable affect sea ice and temperature play an important role in the process of decreasing Arctic sea ice.