A Research On The Short-term Numerical Prediction Of The Sea Surface Temperature Over The East China Sea

The prediction of the sea surface temperature is important in marine development. Wind, heat, cool, evaporation and precipitation have great impact on the distribution of materials and momentum in the ocean. Although these factors can ultimately influence on the whole ocean, their direct impacts are on the surface mixed layer in the ocean, which is the interface of the ocean and atmosphere. The dissertation summarizes various bulk mixed layer models and high-order mixed layer models since 1967. The Mellor-Yamada level-2.5, Kraus-Niller (Kraus and Niller,1977), and PWP(Price, 1986) models were tested by simulating the mixed layer at the ocean station Papa (140°W, 30°E) for the year 1961. The ocean station simulations show that Kraus-Niller model and the Mellor-Yamada level-2.5 can be turned to give fairly good results.Horizontal advection also makes substantial contributions to changes in the upper-ocean thermal structure in the East China Sea, so a two-dimensional mixed layer operational model is designed to predict the sea surface temperature in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea (117°130°E, 24°41.°N). In order to simplify the problem, the current is regarded as the combination of the residual current, the wind drift current and the density current. An objective analysis method is used to calculate the monthly mean surface residual current in the East China Sea in summer. The vertical entrainment through the base of the mixed layer is determined by the turbulent kinetic energy balance proposed by Kraus and Niller. This model also includes the effect of tidal mixing and Ekman Pumping.By forcing the model using atmospheric field data obtained from T213 model, the sea surface temperature is hindcast for a three days period. The square error between the modeled SST and observed SST is 0.537°C.