Research On Monte Carlo Simulation System Of Multi-scheme Decision-making In The Exploration Of Petroliferous Basins

Multi-scheme decision-making in the exploration of petroliferous basins is the risk-decision-making. Decision-maker cannot traditionally get the probability and the risk of decision-making results in untrue objectivity of decision-making, because the traditional methods of decision-making used risk-decision-making as determination-decision-making in fact.The present paper has simulated multi-scheme decision-making of exploration in Oil and Gas Bearing Basins with the method of Monte Carlo. The characteristics of the method of Monte Carlo are to get the probability model with different random variable, which can solve the risk-decision-making elaborately and provide the objective judge of guideline.Because of planned economy, the price of crude oil in China was less then the price of international market for a long term. With the rapid step of market economy, our country has imported plenty of crude oil. The author adopted the price of crude oil in international market as the parameter of Monte Carlo system of multi-scheme decision-making of exploration in oil and gas bearing basins because the price in international market is more reasonable than the planed price.The author deduced the formula of net cash flow for the simulation of Monte Carlo with the current tax rate system. According to the characteristics of exploration in oil and gas Bearing Basins, the author designed the model of multi-scheme decision-making of exploration in Oil and Gas Bearing Basins with the method of Monte Carlo and finished the concrete content of model by C++ Builder 5.The paper described the whole procedure of simulation and gained the probability of net cash flow, accumulative net cash flow and financial net cash. The author compared the first exploration scheme with others and revised the result bythe method of Analytical Hierarchy Process.The author put forward the new idea of method of multi-scheme decision-making of exploration in oil and gas bearing basins by design, realization and test of multi-scheme decision-making of exploration in oil and gas bearing basins with the method of Monte Carlo. The method overcomes the disadvantage of traditional method at a certain extent.