| After the outbreak of the 2007subprime mortgage crisis, through foreign trade, capital , employment and other means quickly spread throughout the world, evolved into a global financial crisis .Although all countries have implemented the appropriate measures to deal with it, but its impact on China is more extensive, from the virtual economy gradually spread to the real economy, China's foreign trade also experienced an unprecedented economic challenges.This article is from the macro performance of the export trade to proceed , establish a rational design, simple evaluation index system of the financial crisis , determine the scope of a corresponding index, show the financial crisis on the impact of China's foreign trade, to alleviate the financial crisis provide the scientific basis. This system describes the financial crisis and financial contagion theory. Based on theory research and study the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, this article from foreign trade, service trade, foreign direct investment, exchange rates, investment in five areas selected 15 indicators form the diffusion index of financial crisis. First, apply Cointegration analysis and Granger causality test analysis, illustrate the financial crisis on China's exports existence of the contagion effects. Second, by comparing the index compiled method of selecting, using principal component analysis constructedthe market index of foreign trade, the market index of service trade, the market index of foreign direct investment, the investment market index, exchange rate market index. Further use AHP constructed the financial crisis diffusion index . And use the threshold method to determine the index level by the financial crisis. The results show that, we build diffusion index of financial crisis is well illustrated affected by the financial crisis, and affected agree is also in line with the reality of our country. Finally, this article from different aspects put forward the corresponding countermeasures. |
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