Semi-parametric Regressive Prediction Model For Population Of China

There are many different prediction models about the total population of China. Setting errors are existed in the practical applications in the traditional linear models, however the whole regression function is estimated and the sample data can be fitted better and predicted accurately in the nonparametric regression models because of assuming the relationships among the variables of the models are unknown. Semi-parametric model has more explanatory power and can avoid the"dimension curse"better with merging the advantages of non-parametric model and linear model, therefore the semi-parametric models are populated by many scholars. In recent years, semi-parametric regressive prediction model has also been applied in the model for population, but the applications of estimation of the semi-parametric model are focuse of kernel methods, spline smoothing method of global methods and Bootstrap method based on the resampling are not found and applied in the population in the literatures.Semi-parametric regressive prediction model for pupulation of China is done under three main cases. Firsrt, the linear regressive model is done based on theory of time series analysis, and semi-parametric regressive model is estimated based on the theory of spline estimation, then the observations of Chinese population are fitted and predicted using the two models, simulated results show the established semiparametric regression model is superior to some traditional models. Second, a semi-parametric autoregression model with an exogenous variable for population of China is presented considering high correlation between the GDP and chinese population, comparing the prediction results with the non-parametric model with GDP is the non-parmetric funtion and semi-parametric regressive prediction model with GDP is the linear main part of model, the result show that semi-parametric regressive model done in this paper is another better model. Finally, semi-parametric regressive prediction model for pupulation of China is done based on the theory of spline and bootstrap method, semiparametric autoregression model is set up, and the Chinese population are fitted and predicted,the results show that accuracy of fit and prediction of the total population of China are higher.