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The Research Of Severe Convective Weather Forecast Based On Wind Information

Posted on:2011-04-20Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2120330338483586Subject:Pattern Recognition and Intelligent Systems
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Severe convective weather referred to meteorology is one devastating weather disaster which happens suddenly, moves rapidly. Severe weather, mainly include rainstorms, hailstones, tornadoes, thunderstorms gales and so on. Rainstorms and hailstones are the major natural disasters in our country, every year thousands of casualties of people and economic losses of several million were caused by them.Doppler weather radar is one of primary tools to monitor and warn severe convective weather. It can estimate larger range of quantitative precipitation, obtain rain cloud wind field structure, also can get vertical wind profile (VWP) through the VAD wind retrieval technology.In this paper, we use wind profile product to build wind field data, combine with wind vector map and low-level environmental wind storm-relative helicity to build severe convective weather automatic identification and forecasting system. The main work includes: (1) build wind field data. We extract wind information in different times and different weather from VWP, as input for the program reads. (2) Set up wind vector map and calculate storm-relative helicity. Wind vector map shows the wind shear condition with height intuitively, and storm-relative helicity shows the intensity of convective storm development in figures. The greater the helicity is the more likely severe convective weather will occur. (3) Severe convective weather identification and forecast. We analysis the trend of storms, hailstones and other severe convective weather, combine with the variety of wind vector map and helicity, do different weather forecasting tests, and build recognition and forecasting system. The test results show that: the constructed system has good recognition and forecasting result on severe convective weather, generally 1 ~ 2 hour prediction ahead. To strong convection and ordinary convective weather it has general recognition and forecasting result, about 0.5 ~ 1 hours prediction ahead.
Keywords/Search Tags:Severe convective weather, Vertical wind profile, Wind vector map, Storm-relative helicity
PDF Full Text Request
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