Assessment Of Flood Disaster In Basin Of Huaihe River

Flood is the most serious meteorological disasters in China, which annually caused devastating impact on the industrial and agricultural production and the people's lives, and eventually brought enormous economic losses. The Huaihe river basin with densely population takes a very important position in social and economic development. At the same time, due to its complicated climate conditions and numerous stream tributaries, high occurrence frequency and intensity of flood disaster in this region have an outstanding impact on the rapid and healthy development for this region's social and economic development. Based on the data of various flood losses in this basin (such as crops inundated area, the affected population, the collapse of house, direct economic losses, etc) and the social economic development status of the whole basin and four provinces of this basin (consumer spending, government spending, capital formation, net exports, regional GDP, etc), this paper took the flood disasters in the Huaihe river basin as the research object, applied the wavelet analysis, comparative analysis, principal component analysis and econometric model analysis to study the temporal and spatial distribution regularities, disaster degree and its influence on this regional macroeconomic development, and established a set of disaster evaluation index system including natural geographical variables, meteorological conditions variables, social and economic variables and disaster loss variables to further improve the fundamental assessment theory flood disaster and its research content.The results show that:There was a cycle concussion in 8 years and 25 years or so interval for flood disaster in the recent 60 years since the foundation; Regional distribution is very uneven, flood disaster in Anhui and Jiangsu is more serious while Shandong and Henan is relatively light; The worst year of the flood disaster in the whole basin is not consistent with those four provinces'in the basin, which is mainly caused by the disaster situation in Anhui and Jiangsu; Regional flood disaster damage degree is affected by various factors, so the rainfall levels can not comprehensively reflect the flood disaster degree; The vector autoregressive model could be applied to study the influence degree of floods disaster on the regional macroeconomic development; For the whole basin, the flood disaster produced negative impact on the macroeconomic development in that very year, but played a role in boosting its macroeconomic development in the next year; Flood disaster not only can directly affect GDP, but also indirectly affected GDP by other aspects of economic system; The influence degree of flood disaster on the macroeconomic development of the four provinces in the basin is significantly different and its influence degree for Jiangsu and Anhui is great while its influence for Shandong and Henan is relatively small.