The Formation Mechanism Of Convective Precipitation Over The Global Warming

Based on the 1948.2009 year NCEP/NCAR monthly data confirm the Northern Hemisphere nearly 60 years the average annual mean surface temperature and summer warming trend, according to the National 743 state precipitation data, using trend coefficient and correlation coefficient statistical method to identify the country The largest area of heavy precipitation, jainghuai River basin determined using the 46 stations in 1960.2008 daily precipitation data of rainfall in the region in June precipitation intensity index spatial and temporal variations before and after warming, storm intensity index increased by the conclusion. Storm rainfall intensity and then extract the linear trend of the linear trend to view the various cycles of wavelet analysis to do, and with the filter out the existence of each cycle. Linear trend model and the various cycles model of the original sequence. Linear trend model control 21% of the variance. It can explain the intensity of rainfall. Then the sequence with the subtropical high and polar vortex and to do correlation to the various circulation indices, to identify the Asian polar vortex strength and size with the original series has a good negative correlation; subtropical high intensity and area of the original sequence is well Correlation. Linear trend and its relevance is much higher than do the original sequence. That storm intensity is mainly caused by circulation changes in the linear sequence of storm intensity factor increased. Circulation field analysis and then further confirmed by the conclusions. Then, in 1960.2008 NCEP/NCAR temperature and relative humidity daily data analyzed before and after warming the lower reaches of jianghuai River basin in June precipitation index impact factor changes. That atmospheric water vapor content, heat content and the moist air of instability factors in the three inter.annual changes, here are the impact of the use to the weather factor, to find a suitable index to measure climate change, and then from the index Response perspective how global warming affects the circulation after the jainghuai River basin storm strength. The results indicate that global warming, the troposphere, the high water vapor content were decreased in the month, the lower troposphere water vapor upward trend; heat Han except for a few years, but in 700 hPa,850 hPa,1000 hPa three had significant growth; Instability in the atmosphere was significantly enhanced. As global warming causes stronger these factors, leading to extreme precipitation intensity and frequency increase.