Research On Time Series Forecasting Methods And Their Applications In Tunnel Control

In the period of current financial crisis,with the state increasing the investment of infrastructure,the establishment of the road system is coming to the peak period,while more and more road tunnels are put into operation.How to save energy as much as possible while making sure the travel is safe has become a serious problem in the field of tunnel traffic.New methods of road tunnel ventilation and lighting technologies based on time series forecasting is proposed in this paper.Firstly, the data collected by the tunnel sensors were disposed of by using integrated methods of data pre-processing after studying the characteristics of the data.The grey prediction method and the neural network forecasting method were comparied and analyzed.The grey forecasting method was improved by knowing the lack of its algorithms.At the same time,a new wavelet-gray-neural network forecasting method which is suitable for the data collected by the tunnel sensors was proposed.Secondly, PID control technology and fuzzy control theory were analyzed.A fuzzy PID controller which proved to have superiority by simulation was established.The tunnel ventilation control system for warning was established in this paper.An energy conservation analysis of this system was done to prove its significant effect.Moreover, this paper analyzes the current shortcomings of the ventilation-control system.An intelligent ventilation control method which used good in long tunnel is presented by using forecasting method of time series data mining,fuzzy control theory,PID control technology.By using this method,a pre-control,self-learning tunnel ventilation control system is established.Finally,analyzing the conventional methods,such as road tunnel lighting control method,layout method,a tunnel lighting consumption system is established according to the ideal brightness adapting curve of the driver in the tunnel,using the brightness and the length of the tunnel lighting calculation formulas,as well as using non-linear programming method.After the simulation and energy conservation analysis,the goal of energy conservation can be realized well by using the systems proposed in this paper.