The Instability Mechanism And Research Of Deformation Prediction In Ding Jiafen Landslide

The author based on the western science and technology project and Ding Jiafeng landslide in shuangbo county in Yunnan province,study the crack evolutionary mechanism and the crack how to influence the stability of the slope during rainfall.The author also study the grey GM(1,1) model and error back propagation network for deformation prediction in landslide.The main research work has the following several aspects:(1) A thorough investigation of landslide area to crack strike and topography of landslide area. The author study the cracks evolutionary mechanism. The result show that the rainfall is one cause for cracks form. The cracks have a bad influence for slope stability and the slope essy to lose stability evolved into a landslide in rainfall.(2) The basic problems has been taking,especially about the points of slope surface monitoring setting and deformation monitoring in slope internal. The research work has certain significance for landslide study.(3) The grey GM(1,1) model has been improvemented with the MATLAB software huge computation function.The improved main problems are the background value and side value.The author also institute computed principia to model and put forward 2 improved ways,Finally about the two grey GM(1,1) model have made.(4) In-depth study of the structure,disfigurement and improved computation about error back propagation network. Study the algorithm toolbox of MATLAB procedures about error back propagation network. The tow main netword model of deformation prediction has been designed.(5) The deformation monitoring data of Ding jiafen landslide form January to July of 2010 to study in the model, the calculation results show that the mode forecast value reflect the trend of slope deformation.(6) The deformation monitoring data of Ba Zimen landslide to study in the model, the prediction error is very small. The research show that the applicability of the model.