Study On Macro-stability Effect Of Fiscal Policy From The Perspective Of Population Aging

For a long time,the issue of macroeconomic fluctuations has attracted much attention in academia.Keynesianism believes that when the economy fluctuates,the government should adopt countercyclical fiscal policy to smooth the economic fluctuations.In the early stage of reform and opening up,the Chinese government adhered to the concept of fiscal balance and rarely took the initiative to use fiscal policy to intervene in macro economy.Facing the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and the world financial crisis in 2008,the Chinese government issued proactive fiscal policy twice,which had a remarkable effect on restraining economic recession and stabilizing economic growth.At present,in the face of the impact of the epidemic and the complex domestic and international situation,reasonable and effective fiscal policy is particularly important to promote the steady and long-term macroeconomic performance and achieve high-quality economic development.It is not long since our country first used active fiscal policy to regulate and control macro economy.In 2000,our country officially entered the ranks of population aging countries.Population aging can have serious economic consequences,such as insufficient labor supply and reduced economic dynamism,especially in the fiscal sector.Due to the responsibility for the pension cause,the financial pension related expenditure in the aging society increases,which is mainly reflected in the medical and health care and social security expenditure related to the aging in the general public budget and the pension insurance and medical insurance fund expenditure in the social insurance fund budget.At the same time,changes in consumption,investment demand and labor supply in an aging society have a negative impact on the fiscal side of the income.It can be seen that the impact of population aging on both ends of fiscal revenue and expenditure increases the fiscal burden and reduces the operating space of fiscal policy.Based on the above analysis,a series of important questions are:what is the macro stabilization effect of China’s fiscal policy?Does population aging affect the effect of fiscal policy to smooth macroeconomic fluctuations?Are there differences in the impact of different fiscal policies?This is the core issue of this paper.However,the existing research on this topic at home and abroad is still in its infancy,and there are many shortcomings and urgent needs to be improved in the aspects of research content,research methods and policy optimization paths.Guided by the above problems,this paper combines the empirical analysis with the relevant theoretical system,and tries to build a logically consistent explanation framework for the above problems.The structure and specific contents of each chapter are as follows:Chapter 1 starts from the research background and significance of the macro stabilization effect of fiscal policy under the perspective of population aging,and explains the research method,logical system and innovation points;Chapter 2 summarizes the current research status of fiscal policy and macroeconomic fluctuations,the impact of population aging on fiscal policy,policy measures to deal with population aging and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,and finds out the existing literature to be improved and supplemented;Chapter 3 from the perspective of real business cycle theory,New Keynesian theory,demographic transition theory and life cycle hypothesis,combined with the analysis of the impact of population aging on fiscal expenditure end and revenue end,expound the impact mechanism of population aging on the macro stability effect of fiscal policy;Chapter 4 describes the development process of China’s fiscal policy,and then tests the effect of China’s fiscal policy on smoothing economic fluctuations since 1998 by establishing a provincial balanced panel econometric model.Chapter 5 constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium research framework including fiscal policy,macroeconomic fluctuations and population aging,and examines the relationship between population aging and the macro stability effect of fiscal policy from the perspective of fiscal expenditure.Chapter 6,based on the research framework of the previous chapter,formulates more realistic tax rules and examines the relationship between population aging and macro stabilization effect of fiscal policy from the perspective of tax reduction;In Chapter 7,the model is extended to include the issue of "pension income and expenditure" into the research framework,to refine the analysis of the impact of aging on the policy effect,and to test the relationship between population aging and the macro stability effect of fiscal policy from the perspective of fee reduction.Based on the research conclusions,Chapter 8 designs the implementation plan of fiscal policy in the aging society from the perspective of adjusting fiscal policy itself and delaying the process of population aging.The main conclusions of theoretical and empirical research can be classified into the following three points:First,fiscal expenditure policies in different population age structures all have macro stabilization effect,but population aging weakens the effect of fiscal investment expenditure policy in general,which is mainly reflected in the decline of policy effect of stabilizing output,household consumption,investment and employment,weakening the policy multiplier effect and bringing greater welfare loss.The aging of population stimulates the increase of pension consumption expenditure,objectively optimizes the structure of fiscal consumption expenditure,and thus strengthens the effect of fiscal consumption expenditure policy in the aging society.On the basis of explaining the difference in the effects of different expenditure policies in the aging society,further from the perspective of fiscal investment efficiency,the relationship between fiscal consumption and household consumption and policy regulation means,It is found that improving the efficiency of fiscal investment,strengthening the driving force of fiscal consumption on household consumption and selecting "cross-cycle" policy regulation means can improve the effect of fiscal expenditure policy in the aging society.Secondly,tax reduction policies in different population age structures all have macro stabilizing effects.Furthermore,from the perspective of tax policy rules and tax reduction policy combination,we find that the effect of tax reduction policy can be improved by establishing tax policy rules that target output and debt at the same time,and implementing structural tax reduction policy combination that reduces commodity tax and capital tax and adds labor tax.Third,fee reduction policies in different population age structures all have macro stabilizing effect.Although the enterprise pension insurance fee reduction policy in the aging society causes the gap between pension income and expenditure to expand,the stable effect of fee reduction policy is strengthened due to the heterogeneity of retired household consumption impacted by the policy and the restriction of aging factor on fee reduction policy space.It mainly shows that the policy effect of stabilizing output,household consumption and employment is strengthened,and the policy multiplier effect is improved while the welfare loss is reduced.Taking the individual pension fee reduction as the policy alternative analysis,the conclusion is similar to that of enterprise fee reduction.According to the above research conclusions,we should optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure in the aging society,improve the efficiency of fiscal investment,strengthen the driving effect of government consumption on household consumption and use "cross-cycle" regulation means;Optimize the setting of tax reduction intensity and methods in the aging society,explore the combination of structural tax reduction policies and formulate reasonable tax rules in the aging society;In the aging society,policy suggestions are put forward from the perspective of further promoting the implementation of the pension insurance fee reduction policy,optimizing the pension insurance contribution system and synchronously improving the supporting measures of the pension insurance fee reduction policy,and delaying the process of population aging.Based on the perspective of population aging,this study enriches the research on the macro stabilization effect of fiscal policy from the perspective of population aging,and seeks for innovation in terms of research perspective,research method and research content.First of all,different from the previous analysis of the influencing factors of fiscal policy effect,which mainly focused on the perspective of heterogeneity such as risk and wealth,this study tries to analyze the macro stability effect of fiscal policy from the perspective of population aging based on the impact of population aging characteristics on fiscal expenditure and income.Secondly,different from the previous research method that mainly adopts generation replacement model to analyze the population aging problem,this study adopts the heterogeneous agent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on the existing endowment insurance system of our country,which not only highlights the characteristics of the population age structure,but also is more convenient to analyze the macro-stabilizing effect of fiscal policy.Thirdly,based on the latest practice of fee reduction policy in China in recent years,this study adds the setting of social security sector to the heterogeneous agent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,and verifies the impact of population aging on the effect of fee reduction policy.Finally,while testing the effectiveness of fiscal policies in the aging society,this study further discusses and analyzes the policy regulation mode through the adjustment of relevant parameters,and explores the optimization measures of various fiscal policies under the situation of population aging.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to adjust the direction of fiscal policy in the future,improve fiscal policy measures,properly deal with the aging problem,enhance the foresight and pertinence of fiscal policy formulation under the aging dilemma,finally strengthen the effect of fiscal policy in the environment of population aging,and improve the quality and efficiency of fiscal policy in the aging society.