| After nearly a decade of practice,China has some experience in implementing the negative list system for foreign investment management,but it is still in the exploratory stage of applying the negative list model in international economic and trade agreements.Since 1992,more than 70 countries(regions)have implemented the negative list model in various forms of regional economic integration agreements,especially developed countries such as the United States,Japan,the Republic of Korea and Australia,all of which have signed more than 10 international economic and trade agreements using the negative list model.The RCEP signed at the end of 2021 is China’s first international economic and trade agreement to adopt the negative list model,which marks a new stage in the implementation of the negative list system for China’s foreign investment management.In the future,the comprehensive implementation of the negative list system for foreign investment management through the establishment of a network of high-level negative list model international economic and trade agreements will become an important symbol of China’s new open economic system and an inevitable requirement for China to actively participate in global governance.At present,there has been no in-depth and systematic research on how to determine the scope and intensity of the negative list industry restrictions,as well as the correlation and impact between negative lists in different countries.Therefore,it is of great practical significance and theoretical value for China to grasp the basic facts of the formation and evolution of the international rules of the negative list model and reveal the economic laws behind it.Under the above background,this paper carries out research from the following aspects:(1)Related literature review.The existing literature is reviewed from three aspects:the evolution of economic system,the evolution of international economic and trade rules and the evolution of the negative list model,and the limitations of the existing research and the marginal contribution of this paper are summarized.(2)Summarize the basic facts of the development and evolution of negative list rules.From three aspects:the origin and development of the international rules of the negative list model,the form and content of the negative list,and the differences between different types of negative lists,this paper examines the development and evolution of the negative list model rules and the current situation.(3)Construct quantitative data of global negative list text information.Firstly,from the three aspects of horizontal inconsistent measures,non-horizontal inconsistent measures and restrictions of inconsistent measures,the setting of inconsistent measures in all countries(regions)is systematically sorted out.On this basis,by matching the negative list nonconformity measures with the International Standard Industry Classification(ISIC4.0)industry code,the negative list industry limit panel data was established,and a series of indicators such as the scope,intensity and core degree of the industry were constructed to depict the negative list limit level.(4)Build a theoretical model to explain the theoretical mechanism of the formation of international rules of the negative list model.By sorting out the facts of the formation process of the negative list,a dynamic game model analysis framework involving the two countries(regions)is constructed,the formation mechanism of the limitation scope and intensity of the negative list industry under different circumstances is deduced,and then the inertial mechanism of the formation of the international rules of the negative list model and relevant propositions to be tested are put forward.(5)Use global negative list quantitative data to test the conclusions of the theoretical model.From the two aspects of limitation scope and limitation intensity,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the formation mechanism of the international rules of the negative list model,and examines the proportion of industrial economic scale,the level of legal system and the regulatory role of the international economic and trade agreement network.(6)Put forward China’s policy suggestions on improving the negative list system.We will comprehensively review the development of the negative list model in China,compare and analyze the implementation contents of negative list non-compliant measures in RCEP member states,and on this basis,summarize the full text and put forward policy recommendations and research prospects.Based on the above research content,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The formation process of the limitation scope and intensity of negative list industry in different countries reflects the "inertial mechanism" of the evolution of international rules.The mechanism is represented by three inertia effects:one is individual inertia effect,that is,the revision core degree of national industry of its own negative list significantly increases the probability of the contracting country(region)to restrict a specific industry and the intensity of restrictions set for a specific industry;The other is the group inertia effect,that is,the industry revision core degree of other countries(regions)significantly increases the probability of the contracting countries(regions)to restrict a specific industry and the intensity of the restrictions set for a specific industry;The third is the individual impact effect,that is,the industry limit scope index and the limit intensity index of the contracting party’s country(region)significantly improve the probability of the contracting party’s country(region)to restrict the specific industry and the limit intensity set for the specific industry.(2)The power of the three effects fluctuates in different periods.A country(region)has a strong individual impact effect in the negative list signed in the early stage.With the increase of the implementation experience of the negative list,the impact of individual impact on the scope and intensity of the limitation of the industry is gradually weakened,and the inertia effect of individuals and groups gradually takes over,becoming the core driving force of the formation mechanism of the limitation scope of the negative list industry.(3)Economic and institutional provisions of different countries have moderating effects on the above three effects.In the process of individual inertia effect,individual collision effect and group inertia effect,the proportion of industrial economic scale,the level of legal system and the network of international economic and trade agreements play a positive moderating role on the formation mechanism of restriction scope and restriction intensity of negative list industries.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)data innovation.Based on the research of Latrille(2012)and DESTA,this paper collected,screened and sorted out 83 negative list international economic and trade agreements signed and effective from 1992 to 2020,forming a comprehensive and complete quantitative data system of negative list,which not only provides the data basis for this paper.It also provides data support for further research on negative list in the future.(2)Method innovation.By matching the information contained in the negative list non-conformity measures with the international Standard Industry Classification(ISIC4.0)industry code,this paper builds a bridge between the negative list information in text form and the quantitative data available for statistics and analysis.A series of indicators,such as industry restriction scope,industry restriction intensity,global industry core degree,national industry core degree and change degree,are constructed to describe and analyze the restriction characteristics of negative list from two aspects of country and industry.(3)Theoretical innovation.On the basis of deducing and analyzing the formation mechanism of industry restriction scope and restriction intensity under different circumstances,this paper puts forward the inertia mechanism hypothesis of the evolution of international rules in negative list mode.It not only enriched the research perspective of negative list model,but also provided new ideas for the research on the formation and evolution mechanism of other international rules,thus expanding the research boundary of new international trade and investment rules. |
