| Since the global financial crisis in 2008,economic development has entered a new normal and macroeconomic regulation and control has faced new situations and challenges.Practical experience has shown that it is difficult for the traditional aggregate demand management and control system to achieve the two policy objectives of "economic growth" and "financial stability" at the same time.Macro-prudential management has been widely used by major economies as one of the main macro-regulatory policies to manage financial risks.Macroprudential management has achieved remarkable results in calming financial cycles and curbing financial risks.However,there are certain policy conflicts between macro-prudential management,which aims at risk regulation,and monetary and fiscal policies,which aim at price stability and economic development.How to coordinate different macro-regulatory policies under a unified regulatory framework and create a stable development environment has become one of the important issues that need to be addressed in the mainstream macro economy at present.The 19th Party Congress formally proposed to improve the two-pillar regulatory framework of "macro-prudential management + monetary policy" to achieve the dual objectives of "economic growth" and "financial system stability".At the same time,the 2021 Central Economic Work Conference suggested that China’s economic development is under triple pressure from "contracting demand,supply shocks and weakening expectations",making macroeconomic stability a critical issue.Therefore,at this critical period when China is entering a new normal stage of economic development,pursuing positive transformation and moving towards the "second 100 years",it is important to study the macro stability effects of the "dual pillar" regulation formed mainly by macro-prudential management and monetary policy in China.It is of great theoretical and practical significance,and is conducive to improving China’s macroeconomic control framework,better achieving high-quality and stable economic growth,and maintaining market stability.On the basis of traditional macro-control theory,this article combines the latest research results of macroeconomic theory and the actual development of China’s economy to condense several main features of China’s economic operation: firstly,financial frictions caused by information asymmetry.First,financial frictions due to information asymmetries,which result in inefficient resource allocation and increase the cost of financing for enterprises,creating a financial accelerator mechanism;second,the problem of implicit guarantees that are "too big to fail".Systemically important banks enjoy implicit guarantees from the government and central banks due to their large scale,complex operations and overlapping relationship networks,which leads to a higher willingness of systemically important banks to take risks and gain advantages in scale in the financial market,thus widening the loan spreads between different financial institutions and distorting the allocation of credit resources;thirdly,differential regulation of macro-prudential policies.According to the Financial Stability Board and the Basel requirements,differentiated macro-prudential management is carried out for banks with different levels of risk exposure in order to achieve optimal allocation of resources and enhance the effectiveness and relevance of macro-regulation.Fourthly,financial risk spillover from the monetization of fiscal policy.Active fiscal policy will squeeze out the room for monetary policy operations and spill fiscal risks to the financial and real sectors through market transmission,exacerbating the contagion and expansion of systemic financial risks.The above-mentioned main economic characteristics are incorporated into the DSGE model analysis paradigm,and the impact of "two-pillar" regulation on economic and financial volatility is analyzed in detail through numerical simulations,impulse response analysis and econometric studies,and "fiscal + two-pillar" is further studied."The effects of economic growth and financial stability of the "three-pillar" regulatory framework are further investigated.This paper finds the following points through the numerical simulation of DSGE model.(1)the "two-pillar" regulatory framework formed by the combination of macroprudential management and monetary policy can effectively calm economic fluctuations and maintain financial stability,i.e.the "two-pillar" regulation has a positive "macro stability" effect(2)The analysis of macro-prudential policy operation strength shows that the macro-stabilizing effect of the "two-pillar" regulation has an obvious boundary,and the operation magnitude greater than a certain level will aggravate economic volatility;(3)The "monetary + fiscal + macroprudential" three-pillar regulation framework has a positive "macro-stabilizing" effect.(3)The three-pillar regulatory framework of "monetary + fiscal + macro-prudential" can form an interconnected and interactive coordination mechanism,which is conducive to further strengthening the positive role of the "two-pillar" regulatory framework in macroeconomic stability and can achieve the goal of safeguarding economic growth and financial stability;(4)Under different financial structures,the "two-pillar" and "macro-prudential" regulatory frameworks can be used to enhance macroeconomic stability.(4)Under different financial structures,the macro stability and economic growth effects of the "two-pillar" and "threepillar" regulatory frameworks are different.Under the structure dominated by systemically important banks,the "three-pillar" regulation is more prominent in maintaining macro stability and smoothing out economic volatility,while under the structure dominated by nonsystemically important banks,the "three-pillar" regulation can effectively balance economic growth and macro stability,but the speed and efficiency of the "three-pillar" regulation in smoothing out volatility are not as high as the "three-pillar" regulation.Under a nonsystemically important bank-led structure,the ’three-pillar’ regulation is effective in balancing economic growth and macro stability,but slightly slower and more efficient in reducing volatility.On the basis of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation,this paper also conducts empirical analysis through real economy data to test the economic growth and macro stability effects of the "two pillars",and discusses its mechanism of action,the effectiveness of the"three pillars" in regulation and control,and the role of the "two pillars" in dealing with extreme shocks."The results show that the results show that:(1)both price-based monetary instruments and the "two-pillar" regulation consisting of quantitative monetary instruments and macroprudential instruments can effectively regulate the macro economy and achieve dual stability in the economic and financial sectors,and the "two-pillar" regulation under pricebased instruments has a significant economic growth effect.(2)The macro stability effect of"two-pillar" regulation under tight macro-prudential guidance is more significant,while "twopillar" regulation under loose macro-prudential guidance can achieve both economic growth and macro stability effects.(3)The mechanism analysis found that the "two-pillar" regulation can achieve macroeconomic regulation by reducing the scale of shadow banking,lowering government debt and suppressing the proportion of real estate investment;(4)The "threepillar" regulation composed of the "two-pillar" and fiscal policies can achieve the macroeconomic stabilization effect.(4)The "three-pillar" regulation consisting of the "twopillar" and fiscal policies can further achieve the dual objectives of economic growth and macro stability;(5)The "two-pillar" regulation can still effectively achieve the objective of macro stability in response to extreme negative shocks such as the stock market crash and the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic,playing the role of economic ballast.(5)The "dualpillar" regulation can still effectively achieve the macro stability objective in response to extreme negative shocks such as the stock market crash and the New Guinea pneumonia epidemic,and serve as a ballast for the economy.Based on theoretical analysis,empirical results and practical experience of major economies,this paper makes the following three targeted policy recommendations on macroeconomic regulation and control: first,to improve the linkage mechanism between the "two pillars" and micro-prudential policies to achieve precise regulation and control;second,to further improve the coordination and coordination mechanism of the two pillars and develop a "three-pillar" regulatory framework;third,to enrich the "two-pillar" regulatory toolbox in response to unexpected shocks and the impact of emerging technologies. |
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