| Eliminating poverty,improving people’s livelihood and achieving common prosperity are the essential requirements of socialism.The No.1 Document of the Central Government of China in 2021 proposes to achieve an effective linkage between consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty eradication and rural revitalization,which provides theoretical guidance for preventing the return of poverty in the post-poverty eradication era.Under the macro policy framework of consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty eradication and rural revitalization and realizing common prosperity,how to enhance the "economic-social resilience" of rural groups,stimulate the endogenous power of production and life of rural groups,and realize the sustainable development of rural families It has become an important part of the research on rural issues in the post-poverty eradication era.The carrier of "economic-social resilience" is the basic economic foundation of households and their ability to handle these economic resources,sustain their survival and pursue initial development.However,households are commonly exposed to multiple unpredictable risks such as medical expenses,unemployment,death,household asset and liability structure,marriage and funeral,natural disasters,market fluctuations,etc.The more they lack the ability to properly deal with risk issues,the higher their economic vulnerability.Rural groups,in particular,are less able to withstand risks when facing negative shocks,which can easily lead to large fluctuations in income and consumption and trigger poverty or return to poverty.Therefore,how to make full use of external resources in order to stimulate the internal endogenous development momentum of rural households,achieve the role of continuously strengthening and consolidating the development capacity and resilience of rural households,better establish and improve the long-term mechanism of consolidating and expanding the results of poverty eradication,and reduce the economic vulnerability of rural households will become an important aspect of consolidating the effectiveness of poverty eradication and the sustainability of anti-poverty effects in China.Inclusive finance provides appropriate and effective financial services at affordable costs to all social classes and groups in need of financial services,and plays a key role in enhancing the income welfare of rural households,strengthening their ability to cope with and resist risks,and improving household vulnerability.The popularization of inclusive banking and insurance services not only directly provides rural households,especially the long-tail rural groups,with access to financial services such as inclusive credit and insurance,and plays the function of financial inter-period capital allocation and risk aversion,bringing more protection to rural household development and enhancing household financial resilience;at the same time,by promoting entrepreneurial and innovative activities,alleviating rural educational poverty,etc.,it promotes household income diversification and raises household income levels.At the same time,by promoting entrepreneurial and innovative activities,alleviating rural education poverty,etc.,it promotes the diversification of household income,raises the level of household income,and has a long-term accumulation and enhancement effect on the human capital of family members,such as physical and intellectual strength,thus enhancing the ability of households to cope with risks and reducing economic vulnerability.However,a systematic theoretical system has not yet been formed in academic circles on the impact of financial inclusion on the economic vulnerability of rural households,and there is a lack of empirical studies from microscopic perspectives.This study focuses on the impact of financial inclusion development on the economic vulnerability of rural households,and proposes a theoretical analysis framework for the impact of financial inclusion development on the economic vulnerability of rural households based on the review of relevant literature at home and abroad and reference to existing research theories.Based on the research data of rural communities and rural households in Xunyi and Yangling,Shaanxi Province,we empirically analyze the direct impact of financial inclusion development on the economic vulnerability of rural households by selecting appropriate indicators,and further follow the framework of "financial inclusion development-capital accumulation-risk coping ability enhancement-entrepreneurial choice".Further,according to the framework of "financial inclusion development-capital accumulation-improved risk coping ability",we adopt econometric analysis methods such as COV-AHP,2SLS,instrumental variable quantile regression model,OLS,Order Probit,endogenous transformation regression model and mediating effect model to empirically analyze the effect of financial inclusion development on rural households’ economic vulnerability through promoting household The indirect impact paths of capital accumulation(natural capital,physical capital,human capital,social capital,and financial capital),risk coping capacity(risk coping strategy,risk coping capacity),and entrepreneurial choice(agricultural entrepreneurship,non-farm entrepreneurship,self-employment-based entrepreneurship,and employer-based entrepreneurship)on rural households’ economic vulnerability,with the main research contents and findings as follows.(1)Analyze the general situation of inclusive finance development and the differences among different groups and found that: from the perspective of micro family,the average number of bank accounts owned by the sample rural households in Shaanxi Province in2018 is 0.697.18.5% of households have received bank credit services in the past three years,indicating that the participation of the sample rural households in formal credit services is still relatively low,and the phenomenon of rural credit rationing is still serious.The average proportion of rural households in the sample enjoying policy-based medical insurance is 69.4%,the proportion of commercial medical insurance is 9.9%,and the proportion of those enjoying policy-based pension insurance and commercial pension insurance are 62.7% and 4% respectively,which shows that whether it is policy-based or commercial insurance,the popularity of pension insurance is not as high as that of medical insurance.46.8% of the sample households use digital finance through mobile devices such as cell phones and computers,and rural households mainly participate in digital payment,and the usage and acceptance of digital finance and digital credit is relatively low.At the supply level,those enjoying significantly lower levels of inclusive financial supply are purely agricultural households,low-income level households,elderly households and households with poor health.In general,the development of inclusive finance,social health insurance and pension insurance have achieved considerable results,traditional bank account services and digital financial services have more room for promotion,the participation of households in the formal credit market is obviously low,improving the coverage and accessibility of financial services at the township level still needs attention,and there is a long way to go to improve the quality of financial services.(2)The study on the impact of financial inclusion development on rural household economic vulnerability found that when the level of financial inclusion development is low,the improvement effect on rural household economic vulnerability is not obvious.Only when inclusive financial development reaches a certain level can household economic vulnerability be significantly improved.The quantile regression results show that the improvement effect of financial inclusion on household economic vulnerability varies among rural households with different economic vulnerabilities: the improvement effect is strongest for moderately vulnerable households,relatively weak for highly vulnerable households,and insignificant for low-vulnerable households.In addition,for rural households with higher vulnerability,the degree of financial inclusion development needed to improve their economic vulnerability is lower.Further analysis finds that financial inclusion focuses on improving household economic vulnerability caused by inter-and intra-village inequality;heterogeneity analysis finds that financial inclusion development is more able to improve the economic vulnerability of non-agricultural households,households with high education level,high income,and households with relatively rich social capital.(3)The results of the study on the impact of inclusive financial development on the economic vulnerability mediated by the capital accumulation effect found that inclusive financial development improved the overall capital accumulation of rural households,which was manifested by focusing on improving physical capital accumulation,human capital accumulation and finance capital accumulation.In terms of sub-dimensions,the impact of the degree of financial inclusion facilitation and the depth of financial inclusion use on household capital accumulation is more significant.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inclusive finance development has a greater contribution to capital accumulation for non-agricultural households and households with good health status of household head.The results of the mediating effect model found that inclusive financial development could improve household economic vulnerability by promoting rural household capital accumulation,and inclusive financial development focused on reducing household vulnerability caused by inter-village inequality,intra-village inequality and synergistic risk through the mediating effect of capital accumulation mechanism.(4)The results of the study on the impact of inclusive financial development on rural households’ economic vulnerability mediated by risk coping capacity found that: inclusive financial development can positively induce rural households to choose positive risk coping measures and reduce the probability of choosing negative coping measures;specifically,inclusive financial development can increase rural households’ choice of "outside formal borrowing","working outside",and "working outside".Specifically,the development of financial inclusion can increase the probability of rural households choosing risk coping measures such as "external formal lending" and "working outside the home",and reduce the probability of choosing negative coping measures such as "selling assets" and "reducing education expenses".This is conducive to reducing the loss of household welfare caused by risk shocks.The development of inclusive finance can significantly improve the risk coping ability of rural households;and there is heterogeneity among different types of households,which can improve the risk coping ability of non-agricultural households,low-income households and households in good health.By dimension,the effects of breadth of coverage and depth of use on household risk coping capacity are greater.The results of the mediated effects model show that risk coping capacity significantly reduces household economic vulnerability.There is a full mediating effect of risk coping capacity in the path of financial inclusion development affecting rural households’ economic vulnerability;there is a partial mediating effect of risk coping capacity in the path of financial inclusion development affecting inter-village inequality and intra-village inequality.At this stage,"informal credit" and "working outside the village" are still the common choice strategies of rural households when they face risks.(5)The results of the study on the impact of inclusive financial development on rural households’ economic vulnerability mediated by entrepreneurial choices found that inclusive financial development can promote the probability of household entrepreneurship,especially non-farm and developmental entrepreneurship.Among the dimensions of financial inclusion,expanding the breadth of financial inclusion coverage and increasing the depth of financial service use are key to stimulating rural households’ entrepreneurship.For households that choose to start a business,household economic vulnerability will increase by 15.45% if they do not choose to start a business;for households that do not start a business,household economic vulnerability will decrease by 1.42% if they choose to start a business.The results of the mediating effect model found that entrepreneurship plays a partially mediating role in financial inclusion in mitigating household economic vulnerability.Inclusive financial development can improve household economic vulnerability by promoting rural households’ entrepreneurial choices.Heterogeneity analysis shows that non-farm entrepreneurship and developmental entrepreneurship can play a stronger mediating effect in the role of financial inclusion in reducing rural household economic vulnerability compared to farm-related entrepreneurship and subsistence entrepreneurship,respectively.Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical findings,this study proposes the following policy recommendations: to establish an effective rural inclusive financial market and increase the participation of inclusive finance;to give full play to the advantages of inclusive finance to alleviate the economic vulnerability of rural households;to attach importance to the linkage between inclusive finance and household capital accumulation to enhance the resilience of household development;to strengthen the risk-sharing function of inclusive finance to enhance the anti-risk capacity of rural households;to use Inclusive finance is used to help rural households start their own businesses,increase the diversification of household livelihood capital,and reduce the economic vulnerability of rural households. |
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