| Economic growth and development are long-term economic phenomena under the influence of productivity,and the improvement of productivity is vital important to the promotion of innovation.Therefore,innovation is the core force of long-run sustainable economic growth.The report of the 19th Party Congress emphasizes the need to unswervingly implement the new development concept of innovation,coordination,green,openness and sharing.At present,the economic development in China is at a critical stage of transforming the development mode,optimizing the economic structure,and transforming the driving force of growth.The development path of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era,and vigorously promoting the reform of quality,efficiency,and power,can continuously strengthen the country’s hard power.Starting from the people’s yearning for a better life,under the leadership of the Party Central Committee,adhere to the implementation of new development concept,implement the innovation-driven development strategy,giving full play to the supporting and leading role of innovation,and continue to forge ahead towards the goal of a powerful modern socialist country.At the same time,it is necessary to rely more on innovation and improve the cross-cycle design and adjustment of macroeconomic regulation to achieve a long-term balance of stable growth and risk prevention.To improve the cross-cyclical design and adjustment of macroeconomic regulation,at the strategic positioning level,it is an upgrade of the traditional counter-cyclical adjustment policy framework.At the operational mechanism level,it is the improvement of counter-cyclical policies that focus on short-term economic fluctuations.Policy design is required to pay attention to short-term economic fluctuations.At the same time,it also pays attention to the trend of long-term economic growth.Under this background,the path and mechanism of innovation’s effect on economic growth,the specific manifestations and transmission methods of economic fluctuations,and the research on macrocontrol policies in the transition stage are the focus of this research.This paper first analyzes the characteristics and connotation of innovation,and introduces the technology shock mechanism and technology diffusion mechanism that innovation has an impact on the economic system,then introduced the relationship between fluctuations and economic growth.Secondly,from the perspectives of Marx and Schumpeter’s theoretical thoughts,it analyzes the reasons and necessity of researching the influence of innovation on economic growth and economic fluctuations,and combines Marx’s economic cycle theory and modern economic cycle theory to promote economic growth and fluctuations through innovation.The mechanism of action and conduction were analyzed.At the same time,this paper establishes a macroeconomic cycle model that takes innovation as an endogenous factor to promote economic growth,and gradually introduces constraints such as R&D investment mechanism,sticky price,technology diffusion,knowledge spillover,and open economy into the model,and uses dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis.Discuss the impact of technical shocks,fiscal and monetary policy shocks on economic growth and economic fluctuations.The first chapter,analyzes the realistic background and significance of the research on innovation and economic growth and fluctuation in China,as well as the research ideas and logical framework of the full text.The second chapter clarifies some of the core basic concepts involved in this paper,sorts out the literature on factors affecting innovation,related research on innovation and economic growth,and literature on innovation and economic fluctuations,and introduces the relationship between economic growth and economic fluctuations at home and abroad.The main research direction and the research method of modern economic cycle have provided an important foundation for the research of this paper.As a long-run and continuous economic phenomenon,economic growth and fluctuation have the characteristics of fast or slow speed and different changes in the overall dynamic development process,which are closely related to the corresponding economic development mode.The economic development mode driven by the absolute quantity of resources is an extensive economic development mode,while the innovation-driven economic development mode is an intensive economic development mode,which can provide a lasting and stable driving force for economic development.The third chapter focuses on theoretical analysis,introduces the relevant basic theory of the article.This paper focuses on the Marxist innovation thought,Schumpeter’s innovation theory,Marxist economic cycle theory and modern economic cycle theory,and tries to combine Marxist economic growth theory with modern business cycle theory.Through the comparative analysis of Marx’s economic growth theory and modern economic growth theory in terms of methodology,analysis methods,analysis content,etc.,it demonstrates the correctness of Marx’s macroeconomic thought.Due to the maintenance of the capitalist system,Western economic thought cannot penetrate into the essence of the economy,and mainly focuses on some phenomena and short-term descriptions.Marxist economics takes dialectical materialism and historical materialism as the methodology,starts from the capitalist production relations,studies the essence and fundamental contradictions of the economy,and reveals the drawbacks of the capitalist system.But it is undeniable that the economic thought of the modern economic growth theory is still useful for reference.Therefore,in the attitude of taking the essence and discarding the dross,when analyzing the practical problems of the socialist market economy,this paper intends to base itself on Marx’s macroeconomic thought,while drawing on the analysis methods and tools of modern economic growth theory to guide the long-run stable operation of the market economy.The fourth chapter starts from the characteristics and facts of economic cycle in China,and makes descriptive statistics on the main variables in Chinese macroeconomy.Then,the most basic two-sector actual cycle model is established to simulate Chinese economic cycle,and the degree of fit between the actual cycle model and Chinese real cycle changes is examined.Then government departments are introduced into the model,the structure of the model is improved,and further simulations are carried out to examine the changes of various economic variables under the positive impact of productivity,in order to improve the fit of the model to the real economic state.After comparison,it is found that the three-sector RBC model has better explanatory power for the growth and fluctuation phenomenon of China.Based on the model structure,the subsequent chapters continue to introduce intermediate production departments,R&D departments,etc.,while adding constraints to enrich the model framework to explore the impact of innovation on economic volatility and growth in China.In the fifth chapter,this paper establishes an endogenous growth model based on the R&D mechanism by introducing the R&D department into the model,and discusses the impact of innovation on economic growth as an endogenous factor affecting total factor productivity.The DSGE method is used to solve the model,and the advanced theories and methods of modern macroeconomics are comprehensively used to perform parameter calibration and numerical analysis of the model based on empirical data from 1996 to 2020 of China.The study found that technological shocks will cause a certain degree of economic fluctuations in the short term,and at the same time will encourage manufacturers to invest more in R&D,improve the innovation level of innovative entities,and promote long-run economic growth.In the RBC theoretical model,the currency is neutral,and the price level has no moderating effect on economic variables,so this chapter introduces the sticky price constraint and the "learning by doing" technology diffusion method in the third section of the chapter.Under this constraint,the effect of technological shock on economic growth is similar,but due to the existence of price stickiness,production behavior has a certain hysteresis,indicating that price stickiness will bring certain friction to shock transmission,although this characteristic will discount the conduction effect,but also plays an important lubricating role in achieving economic stability.At the same time,in order to explore the impact of innovation on counter-cyclical adjustment,the Ramsay optimal monetary policy is introduced into the model.This monetary policy can be used as a short-term counter-cyclical adjustment policy.Specifically,the central bank will tolerate moderate inflation.Deviate from its optimal steady state for a short period of time while raising nominal interest rates to boost savings and boost economic growth.Finally,in order to investigate the efficiency of R&D investment,the last section of this chapter subdivides and compares the types of R&D investment in the two models.Since proprietary technology investment can effectively improve the conversion rate of innovation achievements and adjust the economic structure,it can better cope with short-term fluctuations in the economy and achieve long-run stable growth.The R&D department in the economic system is of great significance to its independent innovation capability.When R&D department doesn’t exist in the economic system,technological progress can only have an impact on the economic system through exogenous shocks.When R&D department doesn’t exist in the economic system,knowledge and new technologies,technological progress is an endogenous factor affecting the economic system,which is manifested in the improvement of independent innovation capabilities.Therefore,the R&D department can change the mechanism and path of innovation’s impact on the economic system.Based on this consideration,in the sixth chapter,two DSGE models with and without the R&D sector are established respectively.At the same time,the technology diffusion characteristics and open economy conditions are introduced into the models respectively,and the role of technology diffusion and absorption is reflected in the total factor productivity,this paper analyzes the impact of technological progress with the characteristics of technological diffusion and open economy on economic fluctuations and growth in China.When technology diffusion effect exists,the productivity of intermediate manufacturers will be improved due to the exchange and dissemination of technology,and the promotion of innovation level to economic growth will be more obvious.The introduction of open economic conditions has enriched the financial environment of the market,magnified the impact of technological progress,and can better observe the effects of different macro-control policies.The control effect of the type of monetary policy is better.Finally,based on the impact of the R&D sector on the economic structure,the impact of technological shocks in the presence or absence of the sector in the model is compared.When the R&D department exists,the factors affecting the level of innovation are endogenous,which can be regarded as the embodiment of independent innovation ability.Compared with the exogenous technological impact of "pie in the sky",the improvement of independent innovation ability will make the economy system has more advantages in coping with short-term economic fluctuations and achieving long-run stable economic growth,which is also in line with Chinese development goal of improving independent innovation capabilities.At the same time,the internalization of innovation activities is conducive to the adjustment of economic structure,so that the effect of counter-cyclical and intercyclical adjustment policies is better.The seventh chapter is the policy suggestion to optimize the innovation-driving ability.The focus of the policy on optimizing innovation capability is to improve innovation capability by considering innovation subjects and innovative methods in the context of promoting high-quality economic growth in China.Given the previous research conclusions,from the perspectives of innovation capability improvement,innovation resource sharing,and innovation achievement transformation,policy recommendations for promoting institutional flexibility,industrial structure adjustment,and linkage of innovation entities are put forward.It is hoped that it will have superficial reference value for scientifically advancing the innovation-driven development strategy and coordinating high-quality economic development.Finally,chapter eight summarizes the thesis and puts forward the future research directions.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Innovation plays a central role in economic development.Based on the different theoretical perspectives of innovation and economic growth and volatility,this paper uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis method to establish a theoretical model,and introduces constraints such as price stickiness,technology diffusion,and open economy into the model.The effect and transmission mechanism of innovation on Chinese economic growth and fluctuation.This paper takes what innovation is,why it needs innovation-driven development,and how to achieve the goal of long-term stable economic growth through innovation as the main logic,analyzes the factors affecting the level of innovation,analyzes the specific path and mechanism of innovation-driven economic development,and deepens the understanding of the path to achieve high-quality economic development in China.(2)This paper sorts out and analyzes the innovative ideas of Marx and Schumpeter,and explains in detail the fundamental reason why innovation is the driving force of economic development from a theoretical level.From the perspective of Marx’s economic cycle,it can be concluded that the promotion of innovation to economic growth is fundamentally achieved by changing the productive forces and production relations.Starting from the modern economic cycle theory,incorporating innovation as a factor affecting economic growth into the macro theoretical model,forming an endogenous economic growth model,and using total factor productivity(TFP)to express the impact of innovation on the economy can better explain innovation.The endogenous growth theory explains growth through technological progress.Based on this idea,expanding the concept of Marx’s organic composition of capital and introducing human capital and knowledge accumulation into the organic composition of capital can enhance the explanatory power of Marx’s growth theory for economic growth in developed countries.(3)By introducing the R&D mechanism into real business cycle model,a DSGE model with innovative characteristics is obtained,which explains the impact of independent innovation capability on economic growth.In this basic modern business cycle model,innovation is mainly achieved through R&D investment in R&D departments,and innovation results drive economic growth through the output of intermediate and final products.Once a new technology as an innovation result appears,technology diffusion will inevitably occur,and the technological cycle affects the driving force of economic development,accompanied by fluctuations in the economic cycle.Since the technological cycle is closely related to economic development,we can make a causal link between technological shocks and economic fluctuations,and explain how uncertainty will affect the long-term economic growth by affecting economic fluctuations.At the same time,in actual production,price changes are not completely flexible,so sticky price constraints are introduced into the model,and the study finds that sticky prices will bring certain friction to the shock conduction in the economy,although this characteristic will reduce the conduction effect,but it has an important lubricating effect on economic stability.(4)According to theoretical analysis,the way to improve the level of innovation is related to the level of development of a country,but the impact of technological progress obtained from different channels on economic fluctuations are similar:innovation can "smooth out" the short-term fluctuations of the economy,according to the conclusion that economic fluctuations and long-run economic growth are inverse changes,it can be concluded that innovation has a positive impact on the long-term economic growth trend.The form of innovation in developed countries is mainly independent innovation,while for developing countries like China,the main way to obtain technological progress is to imitate and learn foreign advanced technology,or to carry out secondary innovation after introducing foreign technology.In the process of learning and communication,with the diffusion of technology,the scope of influence of innovation is further expanded,and the ways and means of acquiring new technologies are explained without affecting the endogenous driving effect of innovation.(5)The endogenous innovation mechanism can not only enhance the country’s independent innovation ability,but also improve the economic resilience,so that it can cope with short-term economic fluctuations,achieve the purpose of countercyclical adjustment,and at the same time improve the cross-cyclical adjustment ability of relevant policies.The cross-cycle adjustment policy focuses on balancing the short-term fluctuations of the economy and long-term stable development,realizing the smooth connection of relevant policies from the use to the exit process,and emphasis on the adjustment and improvement of the economic structure and system.Under the current complex international economic situation,it is an important strategy to ensure long-run high-quality economic development in line with the goal of changing Chinese development mode and driving force for development.When the R&D department is included in the system,the economy can improve its independent innovation capability and adjust the overall economic structure through the R&D mechanism,so as to better achieve long-term stable economic development.(6)A deep understanding of the strategy of innovation-driven economic development and transformation is the prerequisite for implementing various economic measures.In this strategic system,innovation is the key factor to promote the transformation of economic development mode,and also the core driving force to maintain sustainable economic development,which provides a guarantee for the realization of high-quality development.The implementation of specific measures for transformation requires coordination in many aspects.First,the state must always adhere to the drive of innovation,and coordinate administrative units at all levels to formulate special systems;second,industrial structure adjustment must be adapted to local conditions and giving full play to comparative advantages;finally,build an "industry-university-research" platform,and strive to promote the close integration of technological innovation and product innovation in universities and scientific research institutions.At the same time,counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical mixed-policies are implemented,focusing on the coordination and stability of the two policies,taking into account short-term fluctuations and long-term goals,and laying a solid foundation for the innovation-driven development strategy.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)From the perspective of the analytical framework,with the background of China’s economic transformation and development stage transition in the new era,the theoretical analysis methods of political economy and empirical analysis methods and tools are incorporated into the same system,and a logical framework for the interaction between economic growth and volatility that can accurately explain innovation and development is constructed.This paper systematically explores the general logic and transmission mechanism of economic growth and fluctuation under the effect of innovation,and attempts to expand the research on China’s economic innovation-driven strategy marginally.(2)According to the existing research,it is common to conclude that increasing the level of independent innovation by increasing the investment in R&D.But there are few studies on the output efficiency of R&D investment,in this regard,this paper subdivides the category of proprietary investment technology in R&D investment.The research finds that because proprietary technology investment can effectively improve the conversion rate of innovation achievements and play a role in regulating the economic structure,it is confirmed that the conversion rate of innovation achievements can be effectively adjusted.The investment can enhance economic resilience,better cope with short-term fluctuations in the economy,and achieve long-run stable growth in China.(3)Through the analysis of the role of R&D department in the process of innovation transmission,the significance of a country’s independent innovation capability to economic growth is confirmed.Because of the R&D department can change the mechanism and path of the impact of innovation on the economic system,based on the impact of the R&D sector on the economic structure,this paper compares the impact of technological shocks in the presence or absence of R&D sector in the model.When the R&D department exists,the factors affecting the level of innovation are endogenous,compared with exogenous technological shocks,the improvement of independent innovation capability will give the economic system advantages in coping with short-term economic fluctuations and achieving long-run stable economic growth.It is in line with Chinese development goal of improving the capability of independent innovation. |
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