| Various countries are intensively carrying out researches and pilot projects of central bank digital currency(CBDC),not only due to the threat of currency competition from private digital currency and other countries’ CBDC,but also to adapt to the development requirements of the digital economy,and to help achieve the central bank’s monetary policy goals,as well as to develop financial market infrastructure.Disintermediation is the most important feature of digital currency at its inception from technical perspective,and it is also the fundamental reason why digital currency is transformative.Foreign studies regard financial disintermediation as the biggest risk of introducing CBDC.In China,due to the state-owned nature of large commercial banks,there are fewer concerns about the risk of financial disintermediation.The perspective on financial disintermediation at currency level can be neutral instead of negative,and the impacts of financial disintermediation can be studied from a more comprehensive perspective.This study attempts to answer the following questions: From the perspective of financial disintermediation,how to weigh the pros and cons of the introduction of central bank digital currency? Specifically,in order to answer the above question,the following questions need to be answered:(1)Will CBDC lead to financial disintermediation and to what extent?(2)Investigate the monetary and financial connotation of CBDC.Specifically,what impact does the introduction of CBDC and its financial disintermediation attributes have on reserve currency,base currency,monetary structure,and money supply?(3)What impact does CBDC have on monetary policy tools and monetary policy transmission?(4)The academic community generally believes that the most beneficial application of CBDC is to improve cross-border payments,which is also closely related to its disintermediation properties.What role can central bank digital currencies play in improving cross-border payments?In order to answer these questions,the main research of this dissertation includes:(1)Using eCNY pilot(data from three groups of pilot cities)as a quasi-natural experiment,the relationship between the e-CNY pilot and financial disintermediation is empirically tested using a progressive difference-in-differences model model.The conclusions drawn from city data were repeatedly verified through the data of the pilot commercial banks.(2)Based on the balance sheet analysis,the dissertation discusses the impact of financial disintermediation on the currency creation of commercial banks.According to the structure and demand analysis of CBDC,clarify the liability relationship of the central bank’s digital currency in the balance sheet of commercial banks,clarify the relationship between CBDC,and redefine the base currency on this basis.Then analyze the impact on CBDC according to different scenarios: when CBDC simply replaces cash;when it replaces deposits and when the central bank supplements liquidity through CBDC.(3)Empirically test the impact of CBDC on the transmission efficiency of price-based and quantitative monetary policy tools,and continue to test the intermediary mechanism of price-based monetary policy toolsthe net interest margin of bank interest rates,and the intermediary mechanism of quantitative policy tools-Financial disintermediation.(4)Based on the analysis and summary of the blockchain technology and CBDC pilot technology,the research builds a cross-border platform of CBDC with different degrees of integration of the platform.With the attributes of specific platforms,analyze the advantages and limitations of CBDC in cross-border applications.Through theoretical and empirical research,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The e-CNY pilot program has brought about a certain degree of financial disintermediation.The degree of disintermediation varies according to different regions,levels of economic development and depths of pilot projects.The degree of disintermediation is strong in areas with short pilot period,poor economic development level or in western regions.The central bank should prepare price and quantity tools to control financial disintermediation.At the same time,the central bank should support commercial banks with long-term funding.(2)The e-CNY will bring about changes in the currency structure,and if other conditions remain unchanged,the currency multiplier will shrink.(3)Price-based monetary policy tools can effectively affect the amount of bank credit.When interest rates rise and the amount of loans decreases,regression results also show that the e-CNY pilot strengthens the transmission efficiency.The analysis of the mediation effect shows that the impact of price-based monetary policy tools on bank credit volume plays a role through the net interest margin.(4)Although the overall impact of the credit channel has been reduced,the efficiency of the credit channel has been enhanced.The quantitative monetary policy tool,namely the statutory deposit reserve ratio,can reduce bank credit.The analysis of mediation effect shows that financial disintermediation plays a mediating role in the transmission of quantitative monetary policy.(5)Through the analysis of technology,the feasibility and advantages of e-CNY in cross-border payment are confirmed,and a specific e-CNY cross-border payment and clearing platform is proposed.The research conclusions of this paper enrich the monetary and financial theory,enrich the monetary policy transmission theory,and expand the research depth of the interdisciplinary discipline of informatics and economics.At the application level,it is informative for the central bank’s monetary policy,and it is also a valuable reference for commercial banks to deal with the disintermediation brought about by CBDC. |
