Research On China-GCC Monetary And Financial Cooperation Based On Economic Cycle Synchronicit

With the gradual deepening of global economic integration and regional economic integration after the end of World War II,monetary and financial cooperation between countries or economies has become one of the effective ways to improve the efficiency of regional economic and financial cooperation,and improve the economic development level and social welfare effect of countries in the region.As the world’s second largest economy,China faces a great change that has not been seen in a century.Development is an eternal theme.Objectively,China needs to carry out all-round,multi-level and wide-ranging cooperation with neighboring countries to achieve the goal of development.During the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,the Federal Reserve implemented the quantitative easing policy to stimulate the economy by issuing a large amount of money.Due to the nature of the global reserve assets of the US dollar,countries with the US dollar as the main reserve currency in the world have been impacted by monetary easing and the depreciation of US dollar assets.After the crisis,countries have realized the need to strengthen regional or inter country monetary cooperation and economic policy coordination to hedge this impact.They began to strengthen cooperation in this regard through various measures.Facing this kind of impact,China also needs to actively respond.Objectively,it also needs to carry out monetary and financial cooperation with neighboring countries to deal with the impact of the financial crisis or economic crisis.The Gulf Arab States Cooperation Council(hereinafter referred to as GCC)countries are the major countries on the Silk Road Economic Belt.The in-depth monetary and financial cooperation between China and GCC countries is an important part of promoting the construction of the "the Belt and Road",especially the construction of "financing".Among the countries along the "the Belt and Road",GCC countries have natural geographical advantages and abundant energy resources.They are important energy export regions in the world.They should carry out monetary and financial cooperation,especially cooperation between GCC countries,improve the level and level of cooperation between China and countries in the GCC region,and develop stable and friendly diplomatic relations and economic and trade exchanges.It is based on the consideration of energy security,to enhance the economic and trade exchanges between China and the GCC countries,to solve the needs of energy security,and also to cope with the uncertainty of energy security caused by the recent oil crisis and the Russian Ukrainian conflict.This paper selects China and six GCC member states as the research object.Study the problems and prospects of monetary and financial cooperation between China and the six GCC countries.Based on the idea of "whether there is the possibility of monetary and financial cooperation between China and GCC countries-cost measurement of monetary and financial cooperation with GCC countries-micro effects of monetary and financial cooperation with GCC countries-corresponding policy suggestions",this paper analyzes and judges the possibility,cost and mechanism of monetary and financial cooperation between China and GCC countries,and puts forward ideas and policy suggestions on monetary and financial cooperation.This paper includes eight chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,which introduces the research issues and significance of this paper,describes the main research objects and research methods used in this paper,puts forward the analysis ideas and framework of this paper,and reviews the relevant literature research;The second chapter is the theoretical review.It mainly summarizes the theoretical research achievements involved in and related to the monetary and financial cooperation between China and the GCC countries in the text,combs the theoretical basis of monetary and financial cooperation,and puts forward the theoretical framework for subsequent research;The third chapter analyzes the current situation and existing problems of financial cooperation between China and GCC countries,describes the characteristics of economic development of GCC countries,and introduces the economic basis of monetary and financial cooperation between China and GCC countries from the aspects of bilateral economic aggregate,degree of opening to the outside world,and degree of product diversification;The fourth chapter is the possibility analysis of monetary and financial cooperation between China and the six GCC countries.This chapter uses the vector autoregression(Va R)model,based on the common trend and common cycle theory,to investigate the long-term common trend and the short-term common cycle of the economic cycles of China and the six GCC countries.After empirical analysis,it is found that China and the six GCC countries have a common cycle in the short term and a common trend in the long term,so they have the possibility of cooperation;The fifth chapter is the cost analysis of monetary cooperation between China and the six GCC countries.Based on the optimal currency area theory proposed by Mundell,according to the variables such as the economic aggregate of China and the six GCC countries,the performance of national output level difference,trade structure difference,national scale,overall price level and interest rate volatility is investigated,and the OCA index of China and the six GCC countries is calculated,Judge the cost of monetary and financial cooperation between China and GCC countries,and provide the basis for the final policy recommendations.The sixth chapter is the economic effect analysis of monetary and financial cooperation between China and GCC countries,including the economic development effect analysis and welfare effect analysis of cooperation with GCC.The economic development effect part builds a dynamic panel data model,and the welfare effect analysis part builds a wincoop model to calculate the regional risk sharing benefits brought by monetary cooperation to the partners.Through calculation,it is found that there is a significant positive correlation between financial integration and economic growth.Accelerating the construction of financial cooperation will help promote the economic development of GCC countries and China.From the perspective of time trend,the promotion of monetary and financial cooperation to economic growth also depends on the development level of financial cooperation;According to the calculation results of welfare benefits,if the six GCC countries,especially the relatively small four countries,strengthen their cooperation with China,the potential welfare benefits can be increased year by year in the next 5-40 years and reach higher welfare benefits.Chapter 7 and Chapter 8 are the summary.Chapter 7 puts forward the alternative paths of financial cooperation between China and GCC countries.The author proposes to carry out in-depth monetary and financial cooperation with the GCC in a targeted and focused manner.The eighth chapter is the conclusion of this paper,which summarizes the main innovations and shortcomings of this paper,and puts forward a prospect for future sustainability research.